国投期货软商品日报-20251014

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ [1] - Apple: ★☆★ [1] - Timber: Not rated in a clear star system in the given content - Natural Rubber: Rating not clearly defined in a standard star system in the given content - 20 - number Rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - Overall, due to various factors such as supply - demand imbalances, weather conditions, and market sentiment, most commodities in the soft - commodity market are facing different degrees of price pressure, and the recommended operation strategies are mainly to wait and see [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - The price of Zhengzhou cotton decreased slightly, and the spot price of cotton remained stable. The purchase price of new cotton was 6 - 6.3 yuan/kg, and the theoretical cost was 13500 - 14400 yuan/metric ton. The price of pure - cotton yarn was weak, and the peak season was not prosperous. Since mid - September, the continuous decline of Zhengzhou cotton has had a negative impact on the purchase price. The new - year production increase expectation is strong, and the demand is weak. Pay attention to Sino - US trade relations. Temporarily wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, the price of US sugar decreased significantly. In the international market, Brazil's sugar production will remain high, and India and Thailand are expected to increase production. The domestic Zhengzhou sugar continued to decline. The sales rhythm was fast this year, and the spot pressure was relatively light. The market focus has shifted to the next season's output estimate. The rainfall in Guangxi was good, and the sugar production is expected to be good. It is expected that the sugar price will remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. In Shaanxi, the price of early - picked Fuji remained high, and the late - maturing Fuji had poor coloring due to heavy rainfall. The price of high - quality goods in the northwest was higher than last year, and the spot market was bullish. However, the supply - side lacked positive drivers, and the storage volume of new - season Red Fuji apples was expected to increase. The cold - storage inventory might be higher than expected, and the price faced pressure. Maintain a bearish view [4] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - The prices of RU, MR, and BR continued to decline, and the market sentiment was weak. The domestic prices of natural and synthetic rubber were stable with a slight decline. The global natural rubber supply was in the high - yield period. The operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants rebounded last week. In September, China's automobile production and sales increased. The tire operating rate decreased during the National Day holiday. The inventory of full - steel tires increased, and that of semi - steel tires decreased. The inventory in Qingdao decreased. Demand is gradually recovering, supply pressure is large, spot inventory is decreasing, cost drive is weak, and trade frictions are escalating. Wait and see [5] Pulp - The pulp futures price increased. The spot price of coniferous pulp and broad - leaf pulp remained stable. As of October 10, 2025, the inventory in Chinese ports increased. The pulp supply was relatively loose, and the demand was average. Downstream paper mills continued to implement cost - reduction and efficiency - improvement strategies. Temporarily wait and see [6] Logs - The futures price continued to decline, and the spot price remained stable. In October, the price of New Zealand radiata pine increased. The domestic spot price was weak, and the import willingness of traders decreased. The demand was in the peak season, but the growth was not sustainable. The inventory was low, and the inventory pressure was small. The supply - demand situation improved, but the demand - side lacked positive factors. Wait and see [7]