银河期货鸡蛋日报-20251014

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Agricultural Products Daily Report - Egg Report [2] - Date: October 14, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The egg market has entered a phase of off - peak consumption after the festival. With the supply of laying hens remaining high and the demand being average, egg prices are expected to be weak in the short term. Near - month contracts are likely to show a weak and volatile trend, and it is advisable to consider short - selling near - month contracts at high prices [10] Group 4: Summary by Directory 4.1 Fundamental Information - Today, the average price in the main production areas was 2.7 yuan per catty, unchanged from the previous trading day, while the average price in the main sales areas was 2.97 yuan per catty, down 0.07 yuan from the previous day. Most of the mainstream prices across the country remained stable, and the egg prices continued to fluctuate and consolidate with average sales [6] - In August, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.368 billion, an increase of 30 million from the previous month and a 6% year - on - year increase, higher than expected. The monthly output of laying hen chicks from sample enterprises (about 50% of the country) in August was 39.2 million, a 1.5% month - on - month decrease and a 14% year - on - year decrease. Without considering delayed or concentrated culling, the estimated inventory of laying hens from October 2025 to January 2026 is approximately 1.36 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.356 billion, and 1.347 billion respectively [7] - From October 2 to October 8, the number of culled laying hens in the main production areas was 20.12 million, a 3% increase from the previous week. The average culling age of culled hens during this period was 500 days, an increase of 2 days from the previous week [7] - As of the week of October 9, the egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 7,179 tons, a 5.8% decrease from the previous week [8] - As of the week of October 9, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.5 days, an increase of 0.24 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.34 days, an increase of 0.2 days from the previous week [8] - As of October 2, the average weekly profit per catty of eggs was 0.4 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.3 yuan per catty from the previous week. On October 3, the expected profit per laying hen was 3.3 yuan per bird, a decrease of 0.06 yuan per catty from the previous week [8] - Today, the national price of culled hens decreased, with the average price in the main production areas at 4.17 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.05 yuan per catty from the previous trading day [9] 4.2 Trading Logic - Currently, the egg prices in the production areas have basically fallen to around 2.8 - 3 yuan per catty. After the festival, the market has entered a phase of off - peak consumption. The supply of laying hens remains high, and the demand is average. Without significant improvement in the short term, egg prices are expected to be weak, and near - month contracts are likely to show a weak and volatile trend [10] 4.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Near - month contracts are expected to show a weak and volatile trend. Previous short positions can consider taking profits [11] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [11] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [11]