银河期货白糖日报-20251014

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report, October 14, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [4] Group 2: Data Analysis Futures Market - SR09: Closing price 5,386, down 63 (-1.16%); Volume 1,544, up 915; Open interest 6,062, up 932 [5] - SR01: Closing price 5,397, down 73 (-1.33%); Volume 328,908, up 115,571; Open interest 422,156, up 32,133 [5] - SR05: Closing price 5,370, down 68 (-1.25%); Volume 35,813, up 19,613; Open interest 76,302, up 8,310 [5] Spot Market - Sugar prices in various locations: Liuzhou 5850, Kunming 5905, Wuhan 6060, Nanning 5810, Bayuquan 6015, Rizhao 5880, Xi'an 6280 [5] - Price changes in various locations: Liuzhou 0, Kunming -30, Wuhan -20, Nanning 10, Bayuquan 0, Rizhao -20, Xi'an 10 [5] - Basis: Liuzhou 453, Kunming 508, Wuhan 663, Nanning 413, Bayuquan 618, Rizhao 483, Xi'an 883 [5] Inter - month Spreads - SR5 - SR01: Spread -27, up 5; SR09 - SR5: Spread 16, up 5; SR09 - SR01: Spread -11, up 10 [5] Import Profits - Brazil: ICE main contract 15.57, premium (0.30), freight 43.25; In - quota price 4259, out - of - quota price 5418; Spread with Liuzhou 432, with Rizhao 462, with futures - 21 [5] - Thailand: ICE main contract 15.57, premium 0.89, freight 18; In - quota price 4280, out - of - quota price 5445; Spread with Liuzhou 405, with Rizhao 435, with futures - 48 [5] Group 3: Market Outlook Important News - Brazil exported 180.14 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first two weeks of October 2025, up 9.45% from the same period last year [7] - As of October 13, 2025, 11 sugar mills in Inner Mongolia have started operation for the 25/26 sugar - making season, with the last one expected to start tomorrow [7] - As of now, 13 sugar mills in Xinjiang have started for the 25/26 sugar - making season, and the last one is expected to start after October 20 [7] Logical Analysis - International market: Global main producing areas are increasing production. Brazil is at the supply peak, and with the recent drop in crude oil prices, the support for sugar from ethanol is weakening. The raw sugar market is bearish [9] - Domestic market: The domestic market is currently supplied mainly by imported sugar. With the weakening of international sugar prices, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the downward trend in the short term [9] Trading Strategies - Single position: International sugar prices are bearish, and the domestic market is expected to be weak in the short term [10] - Arbitrage: Hold off [10] - Options: Consider buying put options [10] Group 4: Related Charts Inventory and Sales - to - Production Ratio - Figures 1 and 2 show monthly inventories in Guangxi and Yunnan [12] - Figures 3 and 4 show the sales - to - production ratio trends in Guangxi and Yunnan [16] Price and Spread - Figures 5 and 6 show the spot price of Liuzhou sugar and the spot price spread between Liuzhou and Kunming [19] - Figures 7 - 10 show the basis and inter - month spreads of different sugar futures contracts [21][24][26]