银河期货苹果日报-20251014

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - The apple market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term due to the anticipated poor ratio of high - quality fruits. For trading strategies, it is recommended to hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options trading [10][11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - Spot Prices: The Fuji apple price index was 109.50, down 0.07 from the next - working - day price. Prices of various apple types such as Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bagged 70, Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 remained stable. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits was 7.10, unchanged [3]. - Futures Prices: AP01 was 8664, up 26 from the previous close; AP05 was 8661, up 34; AP10 was 9200, up 50. The spreads between different contracts also changed, e.g., AP01 - AP05 decreased by 8, AP05 - AP10 decreased by 16, and AP10 - AP01 increased by 24 [3]. - Differences: The differences between Qixia first - and second - grade 80 and futures contracts decreased, e.g., Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP01 decreased by 26, Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP10 decreased by 20 [3]. Market News and Views - Apple Market News - As of September 25, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas of China was 147,900 tons, a decrease of 60,200 tons from the previous week [6]. - In August 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 68,400 tons, a 27.6% increase from the previous month but a 17.6% decrease year - on - year. From January to August 2025, the cumulative export volume was about 532,700 tons, a 7.7% decrease year - on - year. The import volume in August was 11,800 tons, a 33.3% decrease from the previous month and a 15.3% decrease year - on - year. From January to August, the cumulative import volume was 98,400 tons, a 22% increase year - on - year [6]. - The purchase price in the origin remained stable. Traders mainly purchased new - season Fuji apples in the northwest producing areas. Due to weather conditions, new - season apples in Shandong had not been widely launched, and there was little acquisition in the origin [7]. - The profit of Qixia 80 first - and second - grade storage merchants in the 2024 - 2025 production season was 0.4 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.1 yuan per catty from the previous week [8]. - The ordering price of apples in Luochuan, Yan'an, Shaanxi was stable, with the mainstream transaction price of semi - commodity above 70 being 3.5 - 4.0 yuan per catty, and the high price being 4.0 - 4.5 yuan per catty. In Qixia, Yantai, Shandong, the mainstream price was stable, but the new - season apples had not been widely launched due to frequent rainfall [9]. - Trading Logic - In Luochuan, Yan'an, Shaanxi, the apple ordering price was stable, and the ordered goods were being harvested as rainfall decreased in recent days. In Qixia, Yantai, Shandong, the listing time of apples was postponed due to rainfall, with only a small amount of transactions in the acquisition market, mainly for general - quality goods [10]. - Trading Strategies - Single - side: It is expected that the apple market will be volatile and bullish in the short - term due to the anticipated poor ratio of high - quality fruits [11]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [14]. Relevant Attachments The report provides multiple graphs, including the price of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80, the price of Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bagged 70, AP contract basis, spreads between different AP contracts, apple arrival volume in wholesale markets, 6 - fruit prices, national cold - storage apple inventory, and national cold - storage apple outbound volume [16][20][27][33].