银河期货贵金属衍生品日报-20251014

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Precious metals are currently in a bull market cycle with high certainty, but in the short term, price adjustments may be triggered by possible turning points in events such as China - US trade negotiations and the US government shutdown [8][10]. - The current situation of Sino - US trade conflicts and the accumulation of market risk - aversion sentiment, along with unresolved previous positive risk factors, contribute to the upward trend of precious metals [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - In the precious metals market, London gold reached a new intraday high of 4179.748 and is currently trading around 4139, while London silver hit a new intraday high of 53.579 and is now around 51.95 US dollars. Driven by the external market, Shanghai gold closed up 2.7% at 938.98 yuan/gram, and the Shanghai silver main contract closed up 2.64% at 11533 yuan/kilogram [3]. - The US dollar index rose and is currently trading around 99.4 [4]. - The 10 - year US Treasury yield declined and is currently around 4% [5]. - The RMB weakened slightly against the US dollar and is currently trading around 7.14 [6]. Important Information - 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Paulson hinted that she prefers two more 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts this year, ignoring the impact of tariffs on consumer price increases [7]. - The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in October is 1.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 98.3%. In December, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 0%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 4.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 95.5% [7]. - Leaders of four mediating countries, Egypt, the US, Qatar, and Turkey, signed the "Comprehensive Document of the Gaza Cease - fire Agreement" [7]. Logical Analysis - Sino - US trade conflicts continue, market risk - aversion sentiment is accumulating, and previous positive risk factors remain, such as the US government shutdown causing the lack of key macro - data, which intensifies economic uncertainty [8]. - From the perspective of cross - market spreads and lease rate quotes, the tight supply situation of London silver spot continues [9]. Trading Strategies - For unilateral trading, conservative investors can consider waiting and watching, while aggressive investors can go short - term long on dips [11]. - For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and watch [11]. - For options, consider taking profits on previously held out - of - the - money call options [12]. Data Reference - Multiple data charts are provided, including the relationship between the US dollar index and precious metals, real yields and precious metals, internal and external futures trends, futures - spot trends, internal - external spreads, gold - silver ratios, ETF holdings, futures positions, futures inventories, trading volumes, TD data, and the relationship between Treasury yields and break - even inflation rates [14][17][19] etc.