农业2025Q4策略：养猪牵牛仍为主线，把握后周期机遇

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the pig farming industry is experiencing price fluctuations, with a shift in policy focus towards "anti-involution," leading to a potential lack of seasonal price increases in Q4 2025 [2][6][11] - For the pig sector, as of October 12, 2025, the average price of live pigs was 10.94 yuan/kg, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 17.81% and a year-on-year decline of 39.46% [6][11] - The report suggests focusing on high-quality growth stocks with efficiency barriers, particularly leading companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Dekang Animal Husbandry, as well as smaller pig companies with high elasticity [5][16] Group 2 - In the beef sector, prices have been stable with an upward trend, supported by traditional demand in Q4 and a market shortage of cattle, with prices for calves, fattened bulls, and cull cows reaching 32.19, 25.73, and 19.33 yuan/kg respectively [18][21] - The report anticipates that the beef price will continue to rise due to a combination of market shortages and seasonal demand in Q4, recommending attention to leading beef companies such as Youran Dairy, Modern Farming, and China Shengmu [21][22] Group 3 - In the poultry sector, the report forecasts a slight recovery in white feather chicken prices in Q4, despite ongoing supply pressures, with a focus on integrated industry leaders like Shennong Development [24] - For yellow feather chickens, the report notes a potential price increase supported by seasonal demand, while also highlighting the importance of cost control for profitability, recommending companies like Lihua Stock [26] Group 4 - The feed sector is expected to see increased sales, supported by rising corn prices, with a focus on the outcomes of Sino-US negotiations regarding soybean meal prices [29][33] - In the animal health sector, the report predicts an increase in sales during the high disease incidence period in Q4 2025, despite short-term price pressures due to intensified competition, recommending companies like Reap Bio and Kexin Biological [34][37]