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1.3万亿特别国债全面落地,建筑装饰板块逆势走强
Datong Securities·2025-10-14 13:46

Investment Rating - The report rates the construction decoration industry as "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The issuance of 1.3 trillion special bonds has been fully implemented, leading to a strong performance in the construction decoration sector despite adverse market conditions [1] - The construction industry is showing signs of recovery, with the business activity index rising to 49.3% in September, indicating increased confidence in future demand [5][24] - The issuance of special bonds and urban renewal projects are becoming new focal points for investment, with a total of 36,839.17 billion yuan issued this year, achieving 83.73% of the annual target [5][19] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has initiated all major transportation projects, expected to significantly boost demand for engineering and materials [5] - The construction industry remains resilient, with infrastructure investment showing strong performance despite a weak economic recovery [5][22] Market Performance - The construction decoration sector outperformed the market index, with a weekly increase of 2.84% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's 0.37% increase [7][8] - Among 163 listed companies in the sector, 109 saw their stock prices rise, with the top performers including Guanzhong Ecology (36.14%) and China Nuclear Construction (21.02%) [9][12] Financial Metrics - As of October 10, the construction decoration industry's PE (TTM) is 12.37 times, ranking 30 out of 31 industries, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to other sectors [14] - The PB (LF) stands at 0.82 times, also ranking 30 out of 31, suggesting that the industry is undervalued [14] Investment Data - Fixed asset investment growth has slowed, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of only 0.5% as of August [22] - Infrastructure investment completed 15.76 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.42%, indicating a narrowing growth rate [22] Operational Data - The construction PMI for September was 49.3%, showing a slight increase, while new orders and business activity expectations indicate a recovery in demand [24][25] - New housing sales have decreased, while second-hand housing transactions have increased, reflecting a shift in market dynamics [25] High-Frequency Data - Cement shipment rates remain high, with prices showing a slight increase, while rebar prices have decreased [27][28] - The operating rate of asphalt plants has significantly increased, driven by seasonal demand [28][33] Important Events - The National Development and Reform Commission has highlighted opportunities for construction enterprises in the "Belt and Road" initiative, emphasizing the importance of high-quality development [35] - Major projects, including the completion of the Guyana New Demerara River Bridge, showcase the international engagement of Chinese construction firms [35]