Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Aux Electric with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 17.67, based on an 8x PE for 2025 [5][4]. Core Insights - Aux Electric is the fifth largest air conditioning provider globally and the fourth largest in China, with a market share of 7.1% globally and 7.3% in China for 2024 [1][18]. - The company has a robust presence in over 150 countries, focusing on both domestic and international markets through a dual strategy of ODM and OBM [1][18]. - The report highlights Aux's historical adaptability and strategic positioning, capturing market opportunities across different eras, from cost-effective products in the early 2000s to leveraging e-commerce in the 2010s and expanding globally in the 2020s [1][21]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Aux Electric entered the air conditioning industry in 1994 and has since developed a multi-brand strategy, including the main brand Aux and sub-brands like ShinFlow, HuaSuan, and Aufit, to cater to various market segments [23][1]. - The company has maintained a strong growth trajectory, with a projected revenue of RMB 29.8 billion in 2024 and a CAGR of 30% in air conditioning sales from 2023 to 2024 [23][18]. Market Outlook - The global air conditioning market is expected to grow from RMB 1.31 trillion in 2024 to RMB 1.53 trillion in 2028, with a CAGR of 4.0% [2]. - Aux is actively expanding in emerging markets, particularly in the Middle East and Southeast Asia, with significant contributions from both ODM and OBM business models [2][18]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts Aux's net profit attributable to shareholders to be RMB 3.167 billion, RMB 3.661 billion, and RMB 4.073 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 1.99, RMB 2.31, and RMB 2.56 [4][12]. - Revenue from overseas sales is expected to reach RMB 188.9 billion, RMB 234.6 billion, and RMB 281.8 billion from 2025 to 2027, accounting for 54.3%, 58.5%, and 62.6% of total revenue [2][4]. Competitive Positioning - Aux Electric's manufacturing efficiency is highlighted, with a capacity utilization rate of 91.3% compared to the industry average of 74.4% in 2024, which enhances its bargaining power [3][22]. - The company has diversified its customer base, reducing dependency on any single client, with the largest customer accounting for only 6.3% of revenue in Q1 2025 [22][3].
奥克斯电气（02580）：供应链效率领先，中国制造出海典范