“月度前瞻”系列专题之四：经济前瞻：新旧力量交替期-20251014

Group 1: Economic Trends - The internal pressure on the economy is gradually emerging as the cyclical forces decline, with manufacturing and real estate investments likely to continue their downward trend[1] - Exports are expected to maintain high growth, driven by the industrialization of emerging countries and China's increased market share in emerging markets[1] - The GDP growth is projected to be 4.6% in Q3 and 4.8% in Q4 of 2025, indicating limited downward pressure on the economy[6] Group 2: Corporate Profitability - In August, industrial enterprise profits rebounded significantly by 21 percentage points to 19.8%, primarily due to low base effects and short-term factors[2] - The cost rate for industrial enterprises remains high at 85.6%, which continues to drag down profit growth[2] Group 3: Policy Impact - The transition from "old policies" to "new policies" may lead to a time lag in economic stimulation, with potential weakness in consumer goods and manufacturing investments[3] - The issuance of special government bonds has been completed, but the impact on manufacturing investment may still be negative due to demand exhaustion effects[3] Group 4: Inflation and Price Trends - Expectations for inflation support are declining, with upstream commodity price increases slowing down, which reduces the positive impact on the Producer Price Index (PPI)[5] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to remain low due to high youth unemployment and increased supply of live pigs, which suppresses food prices[5]