周度经济观察：关税冲击，影响几何？-20251014

Export Performance - In September, China's export growth rate in USD terms was 8.3%, an increase of 3.9 percentage points from August[4] - Exports to the US decreased by 27%, but this was a recovery of 6.1 percentage points from the previous month[4] - The overall export performance was supported by strong growth in categories such as clothing, furniture, and electromechanical products[4] Economic Outlook - The report anticipates that export growth will remain high in Q4, driven by strong demand in the trade sector and a stable macroeconomic environment[5] - The weak performance of domestic demand may continue, limiting the upward trend in import growth despite a 7.4% year-on-year increase in imports in September[6] Tariff Impact - The recent tariff escalations are expected to have a limited impact on domestic asset prices, as market reactions have become more muted over time[10] - Historical patterns suggest that high tariffs are unlikely to be fully implemented, reducing the potential long-term impact on the economy[10] - Internal factors, such as fiscal policy and manufacturing sector trends, are likely to have a more significant influence on the A-share market than external tariff pressures[11] Market Sentiment - Following the tariff announcements, market sentiment initially declined, but investors have largely priced in the potential impacts, leading to a recovery in risk appetite[10] - The report suggests that the likelihood of a US economic recession is low, which may support continued strength in US equities despite tariff concerns[17]