股指期货：恐慌情绪可控，加仓交易TACO股指期权：?险事件影响有限

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for stock index futures are "oscillating with a bullish bias", for stock index options are "oscillating", and for treasury bond futures are "oscillating" [7][9][10] 2. Core Views of the Report - The panic sentiment in the stock index futures market is controllable, and geopolitical shocks present an opportunity to increase positions. In the stock index options market, the impact of risk events is limited, and it is appropriate to configure short - volatility strategies. In the treasury bond futures market, the risk - aversion sentiment has declined, and bond yields have rebounded. The short - term bond market is still significantly affected by risk appetite, but the impact of this round of tariffs may be lower than that in early April [1][2][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - The opening of the Shanghai Composite Index dropped 2.5% on Monday, then quickly recovered and filled the gap. The recovery was driven by Trump's concession speech and institutional FOMO sentiment. Only IM increased its position by 14,000 lots. It is recommended to increase long positions in IM at low levels. The risk factors include the decline of incremental funds and the rise of the US dollar index [7] 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - The underlying market opened low and moved high. The option market turnover increased by 16.12% to 13.362 billion yuan. The trading rhythm slowed down later. The sentiment is positive, and the impact of risk events is limited. It is recommended to configure short - volatility strategies such as covered calls and double - selling [2][8] 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures opened high and closed low, with all contracts closing up. The yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market mostly rose. The central bank's net injection of 137.8 billion yuan supported the short - end of the bond market. The easing of Sino - US relations and the rise of the equity market were negative for the bond market. It is recommended to adopt corresponding strategies for trends, hedging, basis, and yield curves [3][9][10] 3.2 Economic Calendar - On October 13, 2025, China's September export annual rate in US dollars was 8.3%, higher than the forecast of 7.1%. Other data such as China's September social financing scale and the US September non - farm payrolls are yet to be released [12] 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - In the first three quarters, China's total goods trade volume reached 33.61 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. In September, China's exports and imports both increased, and the trade surplus decreased. China's September rare - earth exports decreased compared to August, while imports increased. Trump hinted at canceling new tariffs on China [13]