Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - The price of live pigs is expected to undergo a weak and oscillatory adjustment. From the data of sows and piglets, the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase month by month until December, and it is difficult for the pig price to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which will weaken the willingness of retail farmers to reduce weight and support the pig price to some extent. If the price weakness continues, a negative cycle may form. If this cycle occurs, the pig price is expected to rise at the end of the year, and an inverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract can be considered [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Market Overview - On October 13, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 90 lots. The short - term spot price has no upward driving force, and attention should be paid to when the spot price shows an oversold signal. On the same day, the LH2511 contract of live pigs reduced its positions by 3,135 lots, with a position of about 57,300 lots, a maximum price of 11,430 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 11,120 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 11,125 yuan/ton [1]. - The national average live pig slaughter price on October 13 was 10.84 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg or 0.46% from October 10. The slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan were 11.24 yuan/kg and 10.47 yuan/kg respectively, with a change of +0.01 yuan/kg (+0.09%) in Henan and - 0.06 yuan/kg (-0.57%) in Sichuan. Futures prices of various contracts generally declined, and the basis of the main contract in Henan increased significantly by 227.78% [5]. II. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs in the fourth quarter may be similar to that in the third quarter. From the data of piglets, the slaughter volume of live pigs in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 will increase overall. In terms of the demand side, the consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the price difference between fat pigs and standard pigs may strengthen oscillatory [2]. - The short - side logic in the market includes that the slaughter weight has not decreased, the "inventory" pressure has not been fully released, the subsequent slaughter volume is still high, and the demand support for pig prices is limited from September to October. The long - side logic includes that the farming side has reduced the weight, which is beneficial to the future market, the consumption is expected to gradually improve after the weather turns cold, and the subsequent increase in slaughter volume is limited [2]. III. Strategy Suggestion - The view is a weak and oscillatory adjustment. The core logic is that the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase month by month until December, and it is difficult for the pig price to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, which will weaken the willingness of retail farmers to reduce weight and support the pig price. If the price weakness continues, a negative cycle may form. If this cycle occurs, the pig price is expected to rise at the end of the year, and an inverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract can be considered (for reference only, not an investment advice) [3].
生猪日报：期价偏弱运行-20251014
Rong Da Qi Huo ( Zheng Zhou )·2025-10-14 02:04