国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20251014

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide industry - wide investment ratings. However, it gives trend intensities for each commodity, which can be used as a reference for investment inclination: - Gold and Silver: Gold trend intensity is 1, and silver trend intensity is 1, indicating a moderately positive view [9]. - Copper: Copper trend intensity is 2, showing a strong positive view [13]. - Zinc: Zinc trend intensity is 0, suggesting a neutral view [16]. - Lead: Lead trend intensity is 0, also a neutral view [18]. - Tin: Tin trend intensity is 1, a moderately positive view [24]. - Aluminum and Related Products: Aluminum trend intensity is 0, aluminum oxide trend intensity is - 1 (negative view), and aluminum alloy trend intensity is 0 [27]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless - steel trend intensity is 0, both neutral views [31]. 2. Core Views of the Report - Precious Metals: Gold is expected to continue hitting new highs, and silver is set to冲击 50 (presumably a price level) [2][4]. - Base Metals: - Copper: Market sentiment has improved, leading to a price rebound [2][11]. - Zinc: The price will experience a weak - side oscillation [2][14]. - Lead: The reduction of domestic inventory restricts price decline [2][17]. - Tin: Attention should be paid to macro - economic impacts [2][20]. - Aluminum: The price will fluctuate within a certain range; the center of aluminum oxide price will move downward; cast aluminum alloy prices will follow those of electrolytic aluminum [2][25]. - Nickel: Under pressure from the macro - economic sentiment, nickel prices will oscillate at a low level [2][28]. - Stainless Steel: Pressured by both the macro - economic situation and the actual market, the price decline is limited by the cost [2][29]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - Price Movements: - Gold: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2512 yesterday was 927.56, with a daily increase of 2.88%, and the night - session closing price was 936.72, up 2.45%. Gold T + D closed at 926.48 yesterday, up 3.20%, and 933.67 at night, up 1.80% [5]. - Silver: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2512 yesterday was 11531, up 4.02%, and the night - session closing price was 11710.00, up 4.22%. Silver T + D closed at 11453 yesterday, up 3.53%, and 11669 at night, up 2.55% [5]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai Gold 2512 and Shanghai Silver 2512 showed different changes compared with the previous day. The SPDR Gold ETF's position increased by 4 to 1017.16, while the SLV Silver ETF's position (the day before yesterday) decreased by 8 to 15443.76 [5]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Gold remained unchanged at 70728 kg, and the inventory of Shanghai Silver decreased by 44605 kg to 1124456 kg. The Comex silver inventory (the day before yesterday) decreased by 3660531 ounces to 522463797 ounces [5]. Copper - Price Movements: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract yesterday was 85120, down 0.92%, and the night - session closing price was 86520, up 1.64%. The LME Copper 3M electronic - trading price closed at 10802, up 4.13% [11]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract increased by 78954 to 291422, and the open interest decreased by 14284 to 201831. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic - trading decreased by 11695 to 29402, and the open interest increased by 583 to 323000 [11]. - Inventory and Premium: The Shanghai Copper inventory increased by 2926 to 32890 tons, and the LME Copper inventory decreased by 50 to 139350 tons. The LME Copper cash - 3M premium decreased by 31.19 to 226.78 [11]. - News: China's exports and imports in September both exceeded expectations. The European largest copper producer Aurubis raised the European refined copper price for 2026 [11][13]. Zinc - Price Movements: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22255, down 0.07%, and the LME Zinc 3M electronic - trading price closed at 2984.5, down 0.98% [14]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract increased by 2566 to 177344, and the open interest decreased by 4835 to 101699. The trading volume of the LME Zinc decreased by 5593 to 16666, and the open interest increased by 621 to 220860 [14]. - Inventory and Premium: The Shanghai Zinc inventory decreased by 1030 to 59614 tons, and the LME Zinc inventory decreased by 475 to 37475 tons. The LME Zinc cash - 3M premium increased by 42.45 to 100.45 [14]. - News: China's exports and imports in September exceeded expectations [15]. Lead - Price Movements: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17095, down 0.26%, and the LME Lead 3M electronic - trading price closed at 2014.5, down 0.30% [17]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract increased by 30286 to 66594, and the open interest decreased by 807 to 43988. The trading volume of the LME Lead increased by 2032 to 13567, and the open interest decreased by 3233 to 143335 [17]. - Inventory and Premium: The Shanghai Lead inventory decreased by 499 to 29569 tons, and the LME Lead inventory remained unchanged at 237000 tons. The LME Lead cash - 3M premium decreased by 6.22 to - 38.22 [17]. - News: China's exports and imports in September exceeded expectations, and the Chinese Ministry of Transport issued a method for collecting special port fees for US ships [18]. Tin - Price Movements: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 282110, down 1.48%, and the night - session closing price was 282800, down 0.26%. The LME Tin 3M electronic - trading price closed at 35350, down 3.99% [21]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased by 1793 to 106939, and the open interest decreased by 3722 to 30938. The trading volume of the LME Tin decreased by 9 to 180, and the open interest increased by 53 to 13988 [21]. - Inventory and Premium: The Shanghai Tin inventory decreased by 64 to 5745 tons, and the LME Tin inventory decreased by 25 to 2385 tons. The LME Tin cash - 3M premium decreased by 5 to - 62 [21]. - News: There were multiple macro - economic and industry news, such as China's export control on rare - earth items and the investigation of Qualcomm for antitrust violations [22]. Aluminum and Related Products - Price Movements: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20885, down 95, and the night - session closing price was 20975. The LME Aluminum 3M price closed at 2757, up 11. The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum Oxide main contract was 2820, down 36, and the night - session closing price was 2807. The closing price of the Aluminum Alloy main contract was 20410, down 130, and the night - session closing price was 20490 [25]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai Aluminum, LME Aluminum, Shanghai Aluminum Oxide, and Aluminum Alloy showed different changes compared with previous periods [25]. - Inventory and Premium: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 0.80 to 64.20 million tons, and the LME Aluminum inventory decreased by 0.28 to 50.60 million tons. The prices and premiums of related products also changed [25]. - News: The Chinese Ministry of Transport issued a method for collecting special port fees for US ships [27]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price Movements: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121410, down 770, and the closing price of the Stainless - Steel main contract was 12655, down 125 [29]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract decreased by 10068 to 149002, and the trading volume of the Stainless - Steel main contract increased by 146677 to 306704 [29]. - Industry Chain Data: The prices of electrolytic nickel, high - nickel pig iron, stainless - steel products, and related premiums and profits showed different changes [29]. - News: There were multiple industry news, such as the Indonesian government's takeover of a nickel - mining area and China's suspension of non - official subsidies for imported copper and nickel from Russia [29][30].