银行业月报：季报盈利有望延续稳健，看好相对收益修复-20251014

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][47] Core Viewpoints - The structural changes in funding are significant, leading to a shift towards reallocation rather than trading. The continuous expansion of passive indices has brought stable capital inflows, and the high-weight characteristics of the banking sector will continue to attract funds. The average dividend yield of the sector is currently at 4.47%, which, combined with regulatory measures encouraging long-term capital inflows, suggests that the attractiveness of dividend allocation will persist. The report favors A-share banks and certain quality regional banks (Chengdu, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Suzhou, Changsha) while also considering Hong Kong's major banks for their dividend advantages [3][12][8] Summary by Sections Earnings Outlook - The third-quarter earnings are expected to remain stable despite non-interest income pressures. As of the end of August, the year-on-year growth rate of RMB loans is 6.8%, with a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the end of July. The net interest margin is expected to narrow less than before, with a year-on-year decrease of 13 basis points to 1.42% as of the end of June. The lack of interest rate cuts in Q3 supports the stability of asset pricing levels, and the interest margin business is expected to remain stable overall [4][9][8] Asset Quality - The asset quality is expected to remain stable, with the non-performing loan ratio at 1.49% as of the end of June, and the provision coverage ratio and loan-to-deposit ratio at 212% and 3.16%, respectively. The overall asset quality is anticipated to remain stable in Q3, with disturbances mainly from the retail sector [9][8] Market Performance - In September 2025, the banking sector fell by 6.64%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 9.84 percentage points, ranking 29th among 30 sectors in the CITIC first-level industry classification [20][1] Macro and Liquidity Tracking - The manufacturing PMI for September is 49.80%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.40 percentage points. The CPI for August is -0.40% year-on-year, and the PPI is -2.90% year-on-year. The policy interest rates remained stable in September, with the 1-year and 5-year LPR at 3.0% and 3.50%, respectively [29][36][30]