宏观金融数据日报-20251014

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - China's foreign trade has shown strong resilience in the face of Sino-US tariff policy disturbances in 2025, with the export value from January to September increasing by 7.1% year-on-year, and a growth rate of 8.4% in September, driven by the base effect and the strong performance of mechanical and electrical products [6]. - Mechanical and electrical products have become the core driver of China's foreign trade, with cumulative exports in the first three quarters reaching 12.07 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, accounting for 60.5% of the total export value. High-tech products in the mechanical and electrical products segment have seen significant export growth, while traditional labor - intensive products have generally declined [6]. - After the rapid escalation of Sino - US tariff policies on Friday, Trump's "TACO" expectation resurfaced. A - shares opened lower and closed higher, with "domestic substitution" related sectors leading the rise. In the short term, the stock index is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the possible Sino - US leaders' meeting at the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of this month [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial Data - Interest Rates: DR001 closed at 1.31 with a 0.29bp increase, DR007 at 1.45 with a 5.50bp increase, GC001 at 1.35 with a 12.00bp decrease, GC007 at 1.49 with a 1.50bp decrease, SHBOR 3M at 1.58 with a 0.10bp decrease, and LPR 5 - year remained unchanged at 3.50 [3]. - Bond Yields: The 1 - year Treasury bond yield was 1.35 with a 0.50bp increase, the 5 - year at 1.59 with a 1.75bp increase, the 10 - year at 1.76 with a 1.70bp increase, and the 10 - year US Treasury bond at 4.06 with a 4.00bp increase [3]. - Central Bank Operations: The central bank conducted 1378 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40%. There were no reverse repurchase maturities on the day, resulting in a net injection of 1378 billion yuan [3]. 3.2 Market Repurchase and Deposit Maturities - This week, there will be 10210 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities in the central bank's open market, with 6120 billion yuan and 4090 billion yuan maturing on Thursday and Friday respectively. Additionally, there will be 1500 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits maturing on Wednesday and 8000 billion yuan of 91 - day outright reverse repurchases maturing on Tuesday [4]. 3.3 Stock Index Futures and Spot Market - Stock Index Spot: The CSI 300 fell 0.5% to 4594, the SSE 50 fell 0.26% to 2967.2, the CSI 500 fell 0.29% to 7376.6, and the CSI 1000 fell 0.19% to 7519.8. Most industry sectors declined, with rare earth permanent magnets, precious metals, energy metals, electronic chemicals, and semiconductors rising, while auto parts, consumer electronics, motors, games, and cultural media falling [5]. - Stock Index Futures: IF当月 fell 0.6% to 4586, IH当月 fell 0.3% to 2966, IC当月 fell 0.4% to 7350, and IM当月 fell 0.5% to 7477. IF trading volume increased by 3.8% to 168279, IH trading volume decreased by 0.5% to 73530, IC trading volume increased by 3.7% to 176728, and IM trading volume increased by 22.7% to 286550. IF open interest increased by 1.7% to 283359, IH open interest decreased by 2.1% to 103523, IC open interest increased by 2.9% to 267579, and IM open interest increased by 4.0% to 371285 [5]. - Stock Index Futures Premium/Discount: IF升贴水 was 0.00% for the current - month contract, 4.40% for the next - month contract, 3.72% for the current - quarter contract, and 2.65% for the next - quarter contract. IH升贴水 was 3.09% for the current - month contract, 1.45% for the next - month contract, 1.03% for the current - quarter contract, and 0.41% for the next - quarter contract. IC升贴水 was 32.86% for the current - month contract, 12.51% for the next - month contract, 10.75% for the current - quarter contract, and 9.92% for the next - quarter contract. IM升贴水 was 52.13% for the current - month contract, 15.53% for the next - month contract, 15.50% for the current - quarter contract, and 13.58% for the next - quarter contract [6].