盈利预期视角下，哪些行业三季报确定性更高？

Core Insights - The report highlights that amidst escalating external uncertainties due to ongoing US-China trade tensions, industries with significantly improved profit expectations for Q3 are seen as higher certainty investment directions in the A-share market [1][5][14] - Key industries with notable upward adjustments in profit expectations include non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, comprehensive sectors, pharmaceutical biology, public utilities, and banking [5][15] - The report indicates that from September 1, 2025, to October 12, 2025, the profit expectation adjustment ratios for banking, comprehensive sectors, non-bank financials, and retail trade are 52.8%, 50.0%, 46.0%, and 42.1% respectively [5][15] Industry Summaries - Primary Industry Adjustments: The report notes that the overall profit expectation adjustments for the first-level industries are as follows: non-ferrous metals (1.5%), non-bank financials (1.4%), comprehensive sectors (0.5%), pharmaceutical biology (0.2%), public utilities (0.2%), and banking (0.1%) [5][15] - Secondary Industry Highlights: Within the second-level industries, significant upward adjustments in profit expectations are observed in marine equipment II (4.7%), biological products (3.5%), agricultural product processing (2.7%), securities II (2.5%), industrial metals (2.2%), and precious metals (2.1%) [6][21] - Recent Performance Trends: The report identifies that in the past two quarters, revenue and gross margins have consistently improved in industries such as rare earth magnetic materials, fiberglass and products II, cement and concrete, fine chemicals and new materials, and other metals and materials II [6][25] - TMT Sector Growth: The TMT sector shows significant profit growth, with quarterly profit growth rates for computing, telecommunications, and electronics in Q2 2025 at 685.5%, 64.5%, and 49.3% respectively [6][28] Market Outlook - The report anticipates a revaluation trend for Chinese assets, suggesting that even if there are short-term fluctuations due to rapid market increases, the long-term positive trend remains intact, with expectations of a "slow bull" market [7][29] - Investment directions include a focus on technology growth areas such as AI computing, innovative pharmaceuticals in Hong Kong, and military industries, while also paying attention to sectors benefiting from supply-demand improvements like metals, transportation, chemicals, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and pig farming [7][29][30] - The report emphasizes that the fundamental factors will ultimately determine market trends, with expectations for the real estate market to stabilize and the effects of "anti-involution" policies to become evident, supporting a sustained upward trajectory for the A-share market [31]