鲍威尔暗示再次降息，央行开展了910亿元7天期逆回购操

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Powell's latest remarks suggest that the Fed needs to cut interest rates again and stop balance - sheet reduction, indicating a non - changing trend of monetary policy easing and a weakening US dollar index [14]. - On October 14, the stock market closed lower again with significant trading volume. Due to the lag and long - tail effects of the tariff war and more upcoming negotiations, the situation needs to be observed [2]. - Sino - US trade relations are an incremental positive for the bond market. If the equity market is confirmed to be in high - level consolidation, the bond market will see a slight upward trend [3]. - Steel prices continue to be weak, with iron ore price declines bringing cost - side risks. There is still inventory pressure on finished products, and caution is advised regarding steel prices [4]. - In the short term, lithium prices may show a combination of strong reality and weak expectations, with narrow - range fluctuations. It is advisable to focus on short - selling opportunities on price rallies [5]. - The IEA monthly report slightly lowers the global demand growth forecast, and concerns about oversupply have pushed oil prices down [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump announced the end of the war, but the path to peace in the Middle East remains fragile. The US government shutdown has entered its 14th day, and the White House vows to continue layoffs [12][13]. - Powell suggests that the Fed may cut interest rates by 25 basis points later this month and stop balance - sheet reduction in the coming months. This indicates a non - changing trend of monetary policy easing and a weakening US dollar index [14]. - Investment advice: Expect the US dollar index to weaken [15]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The National Development and Reform Commission issued a management method to support energy - saving and carbon - reduction renovations in key industries [16]. - The Premier of the State Council held an economic situation symposium. On October 14, the stock market closed lower with significant volume. Due to the tariff war uncertainties and more upcoming negotiations, the situation needs to be observed [17][18]. - Investment advice: Allocate evenly among stock indices [19]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Powell leaves the door open for interest rate cuts and may stop balance - sheet reduction in the future. Fed Governor Bowman expects two more interest rate cuts by the end of the year [20][21]. - Goldman Sachs' Q3 revenue reached a record high for the same period. Fed officials' dovish remarks support market sentiment, and the 10 - month interest rate meeting is expected to cut rates [22]. - Investment advice: Given the lingering tariff threat, pay attention to negotiation progress and look for opportunities to enter the market on dips [23]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 600 billion yuan of 6 - month (182 - day) outright reverse repurchase operations on October 15 and 91 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on October 14 [24][25]. - Sino - US trade relations are positive for the bond market. However, factors such as the stock market adjustment rhythm, policy expectations, and the fund fee rate new regulations may affect the bond market. - Investment advice: Hold existing long positions, be cautious about adding new long positions. There will be opportunities to buy on dips after the fund fee rate new regulations are implemented [26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Hebei is stable. Coal mine production is stable, and high iron - water production supports coking coal demand. However, the steel market still faces supply - demand pressure, and short - term steel prices may be under pressure [27]. - Investment advice: In the short term, the coking coal fundamentals are weak. Pay attention to future demand [28]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - ANEC predicts that Brazil's soybean exports in October will be 731 million tons. The estimated soybean crushing volume of NOPA members in September is 186.34 million bushels. CONAB predicts an increase in Brazil's soybean production and exports in the 25/26 season [29][30][31]. - Investment advice: The domestic and international futures prices are expected to remain weak and volatile. Pay attention to Brazilian weather, Sino - US relations, and whether the M2601 contract can find support at 2900 [31]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In Xinjiang, the purchase price of cottonseed in the northern region has stabilized, and the "fixed - price" sales model is becoming more popular. The global textile industry is facing challenges, and China's textile and clothing exports from January to September decreased by 0.3% year - on - year [32][33][34]. - Investment advice: In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be weak and volatile. Pay attention to new cotton purchases, Sino - US relations, and macro - level dynamics [35]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia is considering regulating palm oil exports to meet B50 demand, which may reduce global edible oil supply [36]. - Investment advice: The B50 policy in Indonesia will cause supply shortages. Unless the policy fails, it is advisable to buy on dips [37]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The world steel demand in 2025 is expected to be about 1.75 billion tons, and it will rebound by 1.3% in 2026. In early October, the daily output of crude steel by key steel enterprises was 2.032 million tons, and the inventory increased [38][39]. - Investment advice: In the short term, adopt a weak - volatility mindset, short on price rebounds, or wait for price drops [41]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The price of red dates in the Guangzhou Ruyifang market is stable. The futures price of the main contract slightly declined. The Xinjiang production area is in the drying - on - the - tree period, and the demand in distribution areas is stable [42][43]. - Investment advice: Before the main trading logic becomes clear, it is advisable to wait and see. Pay attention to price negotiations and purchase progress in the production area [43]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - On October 14, 2025, the theoretical profits of corn starch enterprises in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Hebei, and Shandong were 12 yuan/ton, 56 yuan/ton, 69 yuan/ton, and 57 yuan/ton respectively, with an increase in losses [44]. - Investment advice: Continue to look for opportunities to narrow the spot rice - flour price spread in the long - term. If the deterioration of the real - world fundamentals is slow, the 11 - contract rice - flour price spread may still have room for upward correction [44]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - In September, brown coal imports were 46 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative coal imports decreased by 11.1% year - on - year [45][46]. - Investment advice: Due to supply reduction, strong thermal power demand, and winter storage, steam coal prices are unlikely to fall significantly in the short term, and there is strong support around 700 yuan/ton [46]. 3.2.9 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Rio Tinto's Pilbara iron ore production in Q3 2025 was 84.1 million tons. Iron ore prices may fluctuate narrowly between 100 - 110 US dollars due to insufficient finished - product demand and stable iron - water production [47]. - Investment advice: Iron ore is expected to fluctuate narrowly between 100 - 110 US dollars. Maintain a volatility - market mindset [47]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Domestic corn prices are weak. The futures price of the main contract has fallen below 2100 and then rebounded. The basis is expected to weaken, and the futures price may gradually outperform the spot price [48]. - Investment advice: Hold existing short positions and closely monitor market sentiment. Do not enter long positions too early for a rebound [49]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - South Korea's OCI acquires a Vietnamese silicon wafer factory. The spot price of polysilicon is stable, and the production in October is expected to increase. The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells are stable, and the component price may fluctuate [50][51][52]. - Investment advice: The progress of platform companies may cause market fluctuations. It is advisable to consider going long on the PS2512 contract when it is at a discount to the spot. Look for reverse - arbitrage opportunities between the PS2511 - PS2512 contracts at around - 2000 yuan/ton [53]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Dongyue Silicon Materials' net profit in the first three quarters of 2025 is expected to decline significantly. The start - up of northern silicon plants is increasing, while southern plants may reduce production. There may be seasonal inventory accumulation and depletion, but the supply - demand contradiction is not obvious [54]. - Investment advice: It is more advisable to go long on industrial silicon at low prices, but be cautious about chasing up [55]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On October 13, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of 45.35 US dollars/ton. The Shanghai lead futures price fluctuated downward, and the LME lead price was weak. The domestic lead - ingot import window opened briefly, and the social inventory decreased [56]. - Investment advice: For single - side trading, look for opportunities to buy on dips and beware of delivery risks. For arbitrage, look for positive - arbitrage opportunities in the month - spread and short - term internal - external reverse - arbitrage opportunities [56]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On October 13, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a premium of 201.6 US dollars/ton. The zinc - ingot export window has opened, and the LME inventory has increased. The domestic demand improvement is limited [57][58]. - Investment advice: For single - side trading, it is advisable to wait and see. For arbitrage, look for medium - term positive - arbitrage opportunities and maintain a positive - arbitrage mindset for internal - external trading, and take profits on positive - arbitrage positions in batches on dips [58]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - In September, the combined production of power and other batteries in China increased by 35.4% year - on - year. Currently, the lithium carbonate market is in the peak - season inventory - depletion phase, but the supply is expected to remain high, and the demand may face a decline [59]. - Investment advice: In the short term, lithium prices may fluctuate narrowly. It is advisable to focus on short - selling opportunities on price rallies and look for reverse - arbitrage opportunities between the LC2511 - 2512 contracts [59]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - A fire occurred at an HPAL project in Indonesia, but it does not affect the project progress. Short - term macro factors are volatile. The nickel ore price is expected to rise in Q4, and the refined nickel may face inventory accumulation pressure in Q4 [60][61]. - Investment advice: Consider going long on nickel after macro risks stabilize [61]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The IEA monthly report slightly lowers the global demand growth forecast, and concerns about oversupply have pushed oil prices down [6]. - Investment advice: Oil prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [63]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On October 14, the CEA closing price was 55.82 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.33% from the previous day. The carbon market trading volume has not increased significantly, and the price is under pressure [63]. - Investment advice: The CEA price is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [64]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On October 14, the price of high - concentration caustic soda in Shandong decreased. The supply has increased, and the demand is average [66]. - Investment advice: Due to the weakening of the Shandong spot price and the poor performance of the macro - economy and coal market, be cautious about bottom - fishing [66]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - On October 14, the domestic PVC powder market price decreased, and the trading volume was weak. The supply pressure is increasing due to new capacity releases, and the demand is pessimistic due to anti - dumping measures [67][68]. - Investment advice: The PVC fundamentals are weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The price is expected to remain weak and volatile in the short term, with limited room for further decline [68]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle - chip factory export prices continue to decline. Polyester raw material prices have fallen, and bottle - chip factories have lowered their prices. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, but it may accumulate in Q4 [69][71]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the resumption of factory production and new capacity releases. The supply - demand contradiction may increase in Q4, putting pressure on processing fees [71]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - On October 14, the soda ash market in Shahe was volatile. The futures price decreased due to the overall risk - appetite decline in the commodity market. The new capacity of Yuangxing's Phase II project is delayed, but the supply is high, and the demand is average [72]. - Investment advice: In the medium - term, maintain a short - selling mindset on price rallies and pay attention to new capacity releases [72]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - On October 14, the float glass price in the Shahe market decreased. The glass futures price continued to fall, mainly due to the delay in the coal - to - gas conversion of several coal - fired production lines in Shahe [73]. - Investment advice: The glass market shows a lack of peak - season strength. Due to supply - side uncertainties, single - side trading is risky. It is recommended to look for arbitrage opportunities by going long on glass and short on soda ash when the price spread widens [74]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - In September 2025, China's fertilizer imports were 122,400 tons, and exports were 5.438 million tons. From January to September, imports decreased by 6.7% year - on - year, and exports increased by 45.4% year - on - year [75]. - Investment advice: Due to weather - related demand delays, pay attention to whether the demand in Northeast China can be released. When the 2601 contract falls below 1600 yuan/ton, gradually close out short - selling positions. Reserve entities are advised to continue with a dispersed purchasing strategy [77].