山金期货原油日报-20251015

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The oil price is gradually entering a pressured phase from a supply - demand perspective. Short - term Middle East tensions are easing, but there are still potential shocks in Russia - Ukraine, Iran, and Venezuela. OPEC+ plans to increase production, and oil demand may enter a seasonal weakening stage [2]. - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25BP in October and at least 25BP in December. The Fed's balance - sheet reduction may end in the next few months. There are uncertainties in the US economy due to government shutdown and potential large - scale layoffs [2]. - From a technical analysis, the US oil has been in a slow - slope downward oscillation since October 2023. The trading strategy is to sell on rallies considering supply - demand, while also being alert to potential geopolitical conflicts [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Data - Crude Oil Futures: On October 14, Sc was at 449.60 yuan/barrel, down 1.19% from the previous day and 8.73% from the previous week. WTI was at 58.59 dollars/barrel, down 1.63% and 7.26% respectively. Brent was at 62.28 dollars/barrel, down 1.75% and 6.72% respectively [2]. - Internal - External Spreads: Sc - WTI was at 4.72 dollars/barrel, up 4.36% from the previous day and down 22.87% from the previous week. Sc - Brent was at 1.03 dollars/barrel, up 48.97% and down 59.37% respectively [2]. - Sc Month - Spreads: Sc_C1 - C2 was at - 1.00 yuan/barrel, up 23.08% from the previous day and down 78.26% from the previous week. Sc_C1 - C6 was at - 2.40 yuan/barrel, down 9.09% and 45.45% respectively [2]. - Crude Oil Spot: OPEC's basket of crude oil was at 64.30 dollars/barrel, down 1.85% from the previous day and 2.34% from the previous week. Brent DTD was at 71.18 dollars/barrel, up 2.39% and down 0.14% respectively [2]. - Product Spreads: Diesel (East China)/Sc was at 14.530087, up 1.16% from the previous day and 8.04% from the previous week. Gasoline (East China)/Sc was at 16.759139, up 1.06% and 7.91% respectively [2]. - Sc Warehouse Receipts: The total warehouse receipts were 540.10 million barrels, unchanged from the previous day and week [2]. - EIA US Data: Strategic petroleum reserves were 406.99 million barrels, up 0.07% from the previous week. Commercial crude oil was 420.26 million barrels, up 0.89% [2]. - CFTC Positions: Non - commercial net positions were 10.30 million contracts, up 4.30% from the previous week. Commercial net positions were - 11.86 million contracts, up 3.36% [2]. 3.2. Industry News - Geopolitical News: The negotiation of the second - stage cease - fire agreement in Gaza faces difficulties as Hamas and Israel have different stances. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the US attitude towards selling "Tomahawk" missiles to Ukraine is worth noting [2][3]. - Supply - Demand News: Western Oil executives expect US oil supply to peak between 2027 - 2030. The supply - surplus in the oil market is becoming more obvious, and the IEA predicts a record daily surplus of 4 million barrels in 2026 [2][4]. - Interest Rate News: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25BP in October and at least 25BP in December. Fed officials, including Powell, Collins, etc., have made statements related to interest - rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction [2][5][6][7][8]. 3.3. Operation Suggestions - Maintain a short - selling mindset but be alert to potential geopolitical conflicts. Consider using wide - straddle positions, and for those with market - trend expectations, use single - side medium - out - of - the - money option strategies [2].