原油：继续观望

Report Investment Rating - The report suggests continuing to observe the crude oil market [6] Core Viewpoints - The prices of major international crude oil futures, including WTI, Brent, and SC, all declined on October 15, 2025 [3] - The trend strength of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9] Summary by Directory 1. Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage window for Atlantic Basin light crude oil entering the USGC (Cracking) is closed, while the window for heavy crude oil is close to balance or slightly in the red, and the demand for heavy crude oil in the US Gulf is relatively stable [4] - The arbitrage window for US crude oil exports to Northwest Europe and Singapore is open, which supports US crude oil export volumes and increases supply options in Asia [4] - The arbitrage window for Middle - Eastern and West African crude oil entering Japan is closed, which supports the demand for Russian crude oil in Asia [4] 2. Product Arbitrage - The gasoline arbitrage window from Europe to New York is open, helping to balance the gasoline markets on both sides of the Atlantic [7] - The diesel arbitrage window from the USGC to Northwest Europe is closed, as the price difference between Europe and the US is insufficient to cover freight costs [7] - The jet fuel arbitrage window from South Korea to the US West Coast is significantly open, strongly stimulating Asian jet fuel exports to the US [7] - The fuel oil arbitrage window from Europe to Singapore is closed, and the regional market for high - sulfur fuel oil is relatively independent [7] 3. Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows for West African and US crude oil to Singapore are open, increasing supply options for light oil in Asia and diversifying Asian buyers' demand [7] - The arbitrage windows for Middle - Eastern and West African crude oil to Japan are closed, highlighting the pricing advantage and strong demand for ESPO in the Northeast Asian market [7] - The arbitrage windows for US, Azerbaijani, and North African crude oil to Europe are open, with significant economic advantages, supporting export volumes and providing important alternative options for European refineries [8] 4. Key Market News - Due to the US Columbus Day holiday, the release of US weekly API and EIA crude oil inventory data will be postponed to October 16 (Thursday) 04:30 and October 17 (Friday) 00:00, respectively [8] - US President Trump stated that the disarmament of Hamas will occur quickly, perhaps with violence [8] - The CEO of energy company VITOL believes that US shale oil production may decline by 300,000 barrels per day in 2026 [8] - Russia's seaborne crude oil exports have reached a 28 - month high in the past four weeks, due to increased production and attacks on Russian refineries by Ukraine [8][10] - The CEO of TotalEnergies believes that when the oil price drops to $60 per barrel, non - OPEC producers will start to cut production, and non - OPEC supply will decline significantly from mid - 2026, allowing OPEC to regain market control [10] - The warehouse futures warrants for low - sulfur fuel oil are 13,080 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [10]