国新国证期货早报-20251015

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - On October 14, 2025, most futures varieties showed different trends. A - share stock indexes generally declined, while some futures like coke and焦煤 showed slight increases, and others like sugar, rubber, and palm oil were affected by various factors and showed downward or fluctuating trends [1][2][3][4]. Industry Analysis Stock Index Futures - On October 14, A - share three major indexes collectively declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.62% to 3865.23 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.54% to 12895.11 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 3.99% to 2955.98 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2576.2 billion yuan, an increase of 221.5 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4539.06, a decline of 54.91 [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On October 14, the coke weighted index showed a weak shock, closing at 1665.5, a rise of 4.8. The coking coal weighted index had a narrow - range consolidation, closing at 1167.5 yuan, a rise of 6.5. Coke's coking profit is near the break - even point, and the demand increment is insufficient. Coking coal's supply recovery is slow, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [3][4][5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the prospect of global supply surplus in the 2025/26 season and other factors, the US sugar fell on Monday. The Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fell sharply on Tuesday and then had a slight rebound at night. As of the end of September, Guangxi's sugar sales volume increased, but the sales rate decreased, and the industrial inventory increased [5]. Rubber - Affected by factors such as Sino - US economic and trade relations, crude oil prices, and Southeast Asian spot prices, Shanghai rubber declined on Tuesday and had a slight decline at night. In September 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased compared with the same period in 2024 [6]. Palm Oil - On October 14, palm oil futures prices declined slightly. Malaysia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in November while keeping the export tariff unchanged [7]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on October 14, CBOT soybean futures were weakly volatile. Domestically, soybean meal futures were also weakly volatile. High imports of soybeans and the expected early listing of Brazilian soybeans help ease concerns about the supply shortage [8]. Live Pigs - On October 14, live pig futures rebounded from a low level. Currently, the live pig market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, but it is expected to stabilize and rebound after November, with the rebound height limited by over - capacity expectations [9]. Shanghai Copper - Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and overseas copper mine supply disturbances support copper prices, but Sino - US trade disputes and weak domestic demand lead to copper price fluctuations. The inventory has increased, and the peak - season demand is lower than expected [9]. Iron Ore - On October 14, the iron ore 2601 contract declined. The supply is relatively loose, and there is an increasing pressure on steel mills to reduce production in the future, so the iron ore price is in a volatile trend [10]. Asphalt - On October 14, the asphalt 2511 contract declined. The production and shipment of asphalt decreased, and the demand is affected by weather and funds, so the price is in a volatile trend [10]. Logs - On October 14, log futures prices continued to decline. The spot price remained stable, and the import volume from January to September decreased year - on - year. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions, and the market is in a pattern of inventory reduction [12]. Cotton - On the night of October 14, Zhengzhou cotton futures closed at 13240 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased, and the Sino - US trade war has a certain suppressing effect on the cotton market [12]. Steel - On October 14, steel futures prices showed a general downward trend. After the holiday, steel demand is average, the inventory reduction speed may be slow, and the cost support is insufficient, so the steel price may be weakly volatile in the short term [12]. Alumina - On October 14, alumina futures closed at 2805 yuan/ton. The spot market supply is abundant, the inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to continue to decline [13]. Shanghai Aluminum - On October 14, Shanghai aluminum futures closed at 20860 yuan/ton. The macro - situation is complex, and the supply is stable. The demand is improving, and the social inventory in the East China region has decreased [13].