国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20251015

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations [2][6]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coil, due to weak current situations and weakening expectations, steel prices may experience a slight回调 [2][7]. - Silicon iron is likely to have wide - range fluctuations as the quotes in the main production areas are loosening [2][11]. - Manganese silicon is expected to have wide - range fluctuations with the downward movement of manganese ore port quotes [2][11]. - Coke and coking coal are subject to repeated expectations and wide - range fluctuations [2][14][15]. - Logs are expected to experience repeated fluctuations [2][17]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Iron Ore - Fundamental Data: The previous day's futures closing price was 782.0 yuan/ton, down 22.5 yuan or 2.80%. The previous day's position was 499,799 hands, an increase of 14,460 hands. Among spot prices, most imported and domestic ores decreased slightly. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [5]. - Macro and Industry News: On October 14, the General Office of the Ministry of Transport issued a notice on the implementation measures for collecting special port dues on US ships [5]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral view [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamental Data: The previous day's futures closing prices of RB2601 and HC2601 were 3,061 yuan/ton and 3,241 yuan/ton respectively, down 0.81% and 0.70%. Spot prices in major regions decreased. There were also changes in basis and spreads [7]. - Macro and Industry News: In early October 2025, key steel enterprises' production and inventory data showed that the daily output of crude steel increased by 7.5%, pig iron by 3.2%, and steel decreased by 8.5%. Steel inventory increased by 8.2% compared with the previous ten - day period. In August, China's steel exports decreased by 3.3% month - on - month, and imports increased by 10.4% month - on - month. The weekly data on October 8 showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand [7][9]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral view [10]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - Fundamental Data: Futures prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon decreased. Spot prices of silicon iron and some manganese ore decreased. There were changes in basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads [11]. - Macro and Industry News: On October 13, the quotes of silicon iron and silicon manganese in different regions changed, and the prices of manganese ore in Tianjin Port decreased. The manganese ore market is affected by macro - sentiment and downstream procurement rhythm, and the proportion of US - built or - operated ships in imported manganese ore ships is relatively small [11][13]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of silicon iron and manganese silicon is 0, indicating a neutral view [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamental Data: The previous day's futures closing prices of JM2601 and J2601 increased by 0.7%. Spot prices of most coking coal and coke remained stable, with some changes in basis and spreads [15]. - Macro and Industry News: On October 14, the General Office of the Ministry of Transport issued a notice on the implementation measures for collecting special port dues on US ships [16]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral view [16]. Logs - Fundamental Data: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of log futures contracts showed different changes. Spot prices of most logs remained stable, with some small fluctuations in the week - on - week and day - on - day comparisons [18]. - Macro and Industry News: In the first three quarters of this year, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 33.61 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. In September, imports and exports were 4.04 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8% [20]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral view [20].