国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20251015

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: Limited drivers from the origin, focus on the lower support [2][4] - Soybean oil: Range-bound operation, pay attention to China-US economic and trade relations [2][4] - Soybean meal: Trade concerns resurface, may rebound and fluctuate [2][12] - Soybean: Rebound and fluctuate [2][14] - Corn: Rebound to some extent [2][16] - Sugar: Range-bound oscillation [2][20] - Cotton: Stable in the short term, pay attention to the international economic and trade situation [2][25] - Eggs: Oscillatory operation [2][30] - Live pigs: The bottom of the spot market has not appeared [2][32] - Peanuts: Pay attention to the weather in the producing areas [2][37] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Fundamental Tracking: Palm oil's daily closing price was 9,330 yuan/ton, down 0.36%; night - closing price was 9,320 yuan/ton, down 0.11%. Soybean oil's daily closing price was 8,240 yuan/ton, down 0.34%; night - closing price was 8,244 yuan/ton, up 0.05%. Also provided are data on trading volume, positions, spot prices, basis, and price spreads [5]. - Macro and Industry News: Malaysia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in November to 4,262.23 Malaysian ringgit per ton (1,008.1 US dollars), and maintained the export tariff at 10% [6]. 3.2 Soybean Meal and Soybean - Fundamental Tracking: DCE soybean meal 2601's daily closing price was 2,902 yuan/ton, down 1.16%; night - closing price was 2,915 yuan/ton, up 0.10%. DCE soybean 2601's daily closing price was 3,967 yuan/ton, unchanged; night - closing price was 3,984 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. Also provided are data on spot prices, basis, trading volume, and inventory [13]. - Macro and Industry News: Concerns about China - US relations led to a slight decline in CBOT soybean futures. Traders are uncertain about the potential China - US trade agreement and the resumption of China's soybean purchases from the US [13][15]. 3.3 Corn - Fundamental Tracking: Important spot prices such as the average purchase price in the Northeast, Jinzhou's closing price, etc. are provided, along with price changes. Futures prices, trading volume, positions, and price spreads are also given [17]. - Macro and Industry News: Northern corn's bulk shipping and container shipping prices have changed. Corn prices in the Northeast and North China have generally declined [18]. 3.4 Sugar - Fundamental Tracking: The original sugar price was 15.87 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,800 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5,397 yuan/ton. Price differences and basis data are also provided [20]. - Macro and Industry News: Brazil's sugar production in the first half of September increased by 16% year - on - year, but exports decreased. Conab lowered Brazil's sugar production forecast for the 25/26 season. Domestic and international market supply and demand forecasts are also provided [20][21][22]. 3.5 Cotton - Fundamental Tracking: Futures prices, trading volume, positions, spot prices, and price spreads of cotton are provided [25]. - Macro and Industry News: Cotton spot trading was okay, with spinning mills maintaining rigid demand. The new order of the cotton yarn market was weak, and the price of medium - and low - count yarns was under pressure [26]. 3.6 Eggs - Fundamental Tracking: Futures prices, trading volume, positions, price spreads, and spot prices of eggs are provided [30]. 3.7 Live Pigs - Fundamental Tracking: Spot prices in different regions, futures prices, trading volume, positions, and price spreads of live pigs are provided [34]. 3.8 Peanuts - Fundamental Tracking: Important spot prices, futures prices, trading volume, positions, and price spreads of peanuts are provided [37]. - Spot Market Focus: The trading situation in different peanut - producing areas is introduced, and the weather and the expected listing time of new peanuts are mentioned [38].