宝城期货国债期货早报-20251015

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2512 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is to oscillate weakly. The overall view is to oscillate, as there are still long - and medium - term expectations for interest rate cuts, but the possibility of a comprehensive short - term interest rate cut is low [1]. - For TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is to oscillate weakly, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is to oscillate. The main logic is that although the tariff war has increased market risk - aversion sentiment, which is beneficial to treasury bond futures, the strong short - term domestic economic data reduces the necessity of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut. There is still a lack of effective domestic demand, and the expectation of policy easing provides strong support. In general, treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate at the bottom in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2512, the short - term is "oscillate", the medium - term is "oscillate", the intraday is "oscillate weakly", and the overall view is "oscillate". The core logic is that long - and medium - term interest rate cut expectations remain, but the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is "oscillate weakly", the medium - term view is "oscillate", and the reference view is "oscillate". Treasury bond futures closed slightly higher yesterday. The tariff war has increased market risk - aversion sentiment, which is beneficial to treasury bond futures. However, the strong short - term domestic economic data reduces the necessity of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut, and the implied interest rate cut expectation between the market interest rate and the policy interest rate is weak, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for treasury bond futures. There is still a problem of insufficient effective domestic demand, and the expectation of a loose policy provides strong support. In the short term, treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate at the bottom [5].