宝城期货股指期货早报（2025年10月15日）-20251015

Report Overview - The report is the stock index futures morning report of Baocheng Futures on October 15, 2025, focusing on the financial futures stock index sector [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Report's Core View - The short - term view on the stock index is wide - range oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, and the intraday view is oscillating stronger [1][5] - The core logic is the conflict between short - term profit - taking willingness of funds and the fermentation of medium - and long - term policy - favorable expectations [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For IH2512, the short - term trend is oscillation, the medium - term trend is upward, the intraday trend is oscillating stronger, and the overall view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is the conflict between short - term profit - taking willingness of funds and the fermentation of medium - and long - term policy - favorable expectations [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is oscillating stronger, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation [5] - Yesterday, all stock indices oscillated and declined, with significant declines in IM and IC. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 259.66 billion yuan, an increase of 22.24 billion yuan from the previous day [5] - Due to the resurgence of the tariff war and high valuation levels, investors' willingness to take profits has increased, leading to an oscillating correction of the stock index. However, the impact of Trump's tariff threat on A - shares is short - term and relatively limited [5] - There are still problems of insufficient effective domestic demand and external tariff disturbances. There are strong expectations for policy to stabilize the macro - fundamentals, which provides strong support for the stock index [5] - The investment attribute of A - shares is valued by the policy, and the trend of social wealth allocation to the stock market is emerging. Continuous capital inflow is the medium - and long - term driving force for the upward movement of the stock index [5]