宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20251015

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The overall view for bean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday is "oscillating weakly". The core logics for these commodities are affected by multiple factors such as Sino - US relations, policies, production, exports, inventories, and cost support [5][6][7]. 3) Summary by Variety Bean Meal (M) - Viewpoints: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [5][6]. - Core Logic: With the US Treasury Secretary's statement that it is not certain to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods, market sentiment has fluctuated. The expectation of tightened domestic long - term soybean supply has cooled, weakening the support for the futures price of the 2601 contract of domestic bean meal. Also, factors like Sino - US relations, import arrival rhythm, oil mill start - up rhythm, and inventory pressure affect it [5][6]. Palm Oil (P) - Viewpoints: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6][7]. - Core Logic: The spill - over effect of the pressure on international oil prices on the oil market continues. Also, the weakening of the palm oil market industrial chain exerts obvious pressure. Macro - sentiment's influence on the oil market has significantly increased. Before the market sentiment recovers, the palm oil futures price will continue to be under pressure following the external market. Additionally, factors like biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals, inventories, and substitution demand play a role [6][7]. Soybean Oil (Not elaborated in detail in the core logic section like the above two, but listed in the summary table) - Viewpoints: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6]. - Core Factors: Sino - US relations, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6].