宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025年10月15日）-20251015

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint - The steel price of rebar is expected to continue the trend of oscillating to find the bottom, and attention should be paid to the demand performance. The industrial contradictions are accumulating, and the steel price is oscillating to find the bottom. The rebar 2601 is expected to be weak in the short - term and intraday, and oscillating in the medium - term, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line [1][2]. 3) Summary by Related Contents a. Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term view is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating. The reference is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is the accumulation of industrial contradictions and the steel price oscillating to find the bottom. The time - cycle definitions are: short - term is within one week, and medium - term is from two weeks to one month. The definitions of price trends are: for varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price, and for those without, it's the previous day's closing price, with the day - trading closing price as the end price; a decline greater than 1% is a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is weakly oscillating, a rise of 0 - 1% is strongly oscillating, and a rise greater than 1% is an increase. The strong/weak oscillation only applies to intraday views [1]. b. Market Driving Logic - Rebar shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The production of construction steel mills is weakening, with output continuously falling to a relatively low level, but inventory is high, and the motivation for production reduction during the peak season is not strong, so the positive effect on the supply side is limited. Meanwhile, affected by holidays, the demand is weak, the downstream situation has not improved, and the peak - season performance is expected to be poor. The weak demand is pressuring the steel price. Currently, the fundamentals of rebar are running weakly, industrial contradictions are continuously accumulating, and there is great pressure to reduce inventory under weak demand, so the steel price continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is cost support [2].