Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, for different futures varieties, there are trend - bearish, oscillation - bearish, oscillating, oscillation - bullish, and trend - bullish judgments. For example, log and liquefied petroleum gas are oscillation - bearish, while two - year and ten - year treasury bonds are oscillation - bullish [2]. - Based on quantitative indicators, there are bearish, oscillating, and bullish judgments for futures varieties. For example, Shanghai silver is bearish, while palm oil is bullish [6]. - In the stock index futures, it is advisable to continue considering the idea of buying on dips and pay attention to index rotation. In the bond futures, it is advisable to adopt an oscillating mindset and pay attention to the odds of short - term bonds [12][13]. - For the black industry, steel may oscillate and adjust, and iron ore should hold short positions or reduce positions on dips. Double - coking prices may continue to oscillate in the short term [16][17]. - For non - ferrous metals and new materials, it is advisable to sell on rallies for aluminum, and for alumina, it is advisable to sell on rallies while paying attention to the policy changes at the Guinean mine end. For zinc, it is advisable to hold short positions [22]. - For agricultural products, it is advisable to sell on rallies for cotton, short - term holders should leave the market and wait and see for sugar, and for eggs, it is advisable to lightly short near - month contracts on rallies [29][30][32]. - For energy and chemicals, it is advisable to continue holding short positions for crude oil, and fuel oil prices will fluctuate with oil prices [38]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro News - The Chinese government emphasizes efforts to implement counter - cyclical adjustments, expand domestic demand, and strengthen the domestic economic cycle. The US government's actions, such as the 301 investigation and tariff threats, have an impact on the market. The Fed may continue to cut interest rates, and the US government shutdown affects the economic situation [9][10][11]. Stock Index Futures - The A - share market showed a pattern of rising in the morning and falling in the afternoon. The focus has returned to foreign trade conflicts, but the actual impact may be limited. It is advisable to continue considering the idea of buying on dips and pay attention to index rotation [12]. Bond Futures - It is advisable to adopt an oscillating mindset and pay attention to the odds of short - term bonds. The market is affected by foreign trade conflicts, and the bond market is expected to oscillate [13][15]. Black Industry Steel and Iron Ore - From a macro perspective, Sino - US trade frictions have a negative impact on sentiment, but the impact on real supply and demand is expected to be limited. The demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is fair. Steel may oscillate and adjust, and iron ore should hold short positions or reduce positions on dips [16]. Coal and Coking - Double - coking prices may continue to oscillate in the short term. The supply of coal and coking is gradually recovering, but there are still expectations of "anti - involution" and environmental protection restrictions. The downstream inventory is at a high level, and the short - term demand support is weak [17]. Ferroalloys - Although the settlement electricity cost of silicon - iron plants in Ningxia is expected to decline slightly in the fourth quarter, the impact on the cost side is limited. It is recommended to close out short positions on dips and look for opportunities to go long on dips [18]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash should be held with a bearish mindset or take short - term profits. Glass should be on the sidelines. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, and the contradiction between supply and demand is difficult to resolve. The glass market is affected by the decline in the futures price, and the mid - stream inventory needs to be digested [20]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is advisable to sell on rallies. Alumina is expected to continue to find the bottom, and it is advisable to sell on rallies while paying attention to the policy changes at the Guinean mine end [22]. Zinc - The domestic spot trading of zinc is light, and the inventory is increasing. It is advisable to hold short positions [22]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the strong de - stocking state supports the price, and lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate [24]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate weakly in a range, and it is advisable to layout selling call options. Polysilicon is expected to oscillate narrowly in a range, and attention should be paid to the policy expectations at the lower edge [26]. Agricultural Products Cotton - With a complex upstream - downstream game, increasing supply pressure and weak demand, it is advisable to sell on rallies. The cotton market is affected by the macro - environment, and the demand is uncertain [29]. Sugar - The domestic sugar supply - demand situation is bearish, and the new - sugar supply pressure is expected. However, attention should be paid to the cost support. It is advisable for short - term holders to leave the market and wait and see [30]. Eggs - The supply - demand situation of eggs is loose, and it is advisable to lightly short near - month contracts on rallies while paying attention to the spot price trend and the impact of vegetable prices [32]. Apples - It is advisable to lightly go long on dips. The late - maturing Fuji apples in the eastern and western regions are gradually on the market, and attention should be paid to the impact of rainfall on the quality [34]. Corn - It is advisable to go long on the 07 contract on dips or sell out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract. The new - season corn supply is increasing, and the price is under pressure, but there may be support from state - owned grain depots [34]. Red Dates - It is advisable to wait and see. The market price is stable, and attention should be paid to the opening price of new - season red dates [36]. Pigs - The supply - demand situation after the double festivals is still supply - strong and demand - weak. It is advisable to hold short positions on near - month contracts and pay attention to the 1 - 3 positive spread strategy [36]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The contradiction of oversupply in crude oil continues to materialize, and the price center of gravity moves down steadily. It is advisable to continue holding short positions. The oil price may be repaired in the future [38]. Fuel Oil - The fuel oil price will fluctuate with the oil price. The supply is loose, and the demand is flat [38]. Plastic - Polyolefins are expected to oscillate weakly due to high supply pressure [41]. Rubber - Rubber is expected to continue to be weak due to supply increase expectations and macro - environment uncertainties. It is advisable to be cautious when shorting on sharp drops [42]. Methanol - Methanol has a large port inventory pressure, but there are some bullish factors in the later stage. It is advisable to reduce short positions and wait for a rebound [43]. Caustic Soda - The futures price of caustic soda is expected to oscillate due to the impact of warehouse receipts and the weakening of alumina prices [43]. Asphalt - Asphalt will follow the oil price. The current oil price is affected by geopolitical and macro - factors, and the asphalt demand is in a critical period [44]. Printing Paper - In the off - season, Chenming's resumption of production may lead to oversupply. The fundamentals are weak, but the low - valued disk has some support, and it is expected to oscillate [47]. Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester chain is expected to continue to oscillate weakly due to the weak supply - demand structure and insufficient cost support [48]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - LPG supply is abundant, and the CP price may strengthen in the short - term due to peak - season stocking but will follow the oil price in the long - term. It is advisable to maintain a bearish view in the long - term [49]. Pulp - The spot price of pulp is near the bottom, and the 01 contract has less pressure from new warehouse receipts. It is advisable to observe the inventory reduction at ports and the spot trading situation. If the spot price is stable, it is advisable to go long on the 01 contract on dips [50]. Logs - The fundamentals of logs are weakly oscillating, and the downstream demand is stable. It is advisable to observe and operate with caution [51]. Urea - It is advisable to pay attention to the impact of cost and supply changes on urea futures and maintain an oscillating mindset [52]. Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber is expected to continue to be weak due to weak downstream procurement and macro - sentiment. It is advisable to be cautious when shorting on sharp drops [53].
中泰期货晨会纪要-20251015
Zhong Tai Qi Huo·2025-10-15 01:57