国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20251015

Overall Investment Ratings - Gold: Continue to reach new highs [2] - Silver: Spot contradictions ease, price surges then retreats [2] - Copper: Market cautious, price oscillates [2] - Zinc: Oscillates weakly [2] - Lead: Inventory increases, price under pressure [2] - Tin: Focus on macro - impact [2] - Aluminum: Ranges within an interval [2] - Alumina: Center of gravity moves downward [2] - Foundry aluminum alloy: Follows electrolytic aluminum [2] - Nickel: Macro sentiment turns bearish, nickel price oscillates at a low level [2] - Stainless steel: Macro and reality jointly exert pressure, cost below limits price elasticity [2] Core Views - The report analyzes the trends of various precious metals and basic metals, including their price movements, trading volume, inventory changes, and relevant macro - and industry - news [4][8][11] Summary by Metals Gold - Price and Trading Volume: Yesterday, the closing price of SHFE Gold 2512 was 927.56, up 2.88%, and the night - session closing price was 936.72, up 2.45%. The trading volume of SHFE Gold 2512 was 446,705, an increase of 12,139 from the previous day [4]. - Inventory: The inventory of SHFE gold was 70,728 kg, unchanged from the previous day [4]. - News: Fed Chair Powell hinted at another rate cut and that the balance - sheet reduction is nearing an end, warning of a deteriorating labor - market outlook [4]. Silver - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of SHFE Silver 2512 was 11,531, up 4.02%, and the night - session closing price was 11,710, up 4.22%. The trading volume of SHFE Silver 2512 was 1,550, a decrease of 966 from the previous day [4]. - Inventory: The inventory of SHFE silver was 1,124,456 kg, a decrease of 44,605 kg from the previous day [4]. - News: Similar to gold, influenced by Fed's potential rate - cut and balance - sheet reduction news [4]. Copper - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of SHFE copper's main contract was 84,410, down 0.83%, and the night - session closing price was 84,890, up 0.57%. The trading volume of SHFE copper's main contract was 210,984, a decrease of 80,438 from the previous day [8]. - Inventory: The inventory of SHFE copper was 36,295 tons, an increase of 3,405 tons from the previous day [8]. - News: Powell opened the door for Fed rate cuts; investigation of Chile's El Teniente copper - mine accident will take months; Codelco's August copper production hit a 22 - year low [8][10]. Zinc - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of SHFE zinc's main contract was 22,220, down 0.16%. The trading volume of SHFE zinc's main contract was 124,307, a decrease of 53,037 from the previous day [11]. - Inventory: The inventory of SHFE zinc was 58,494 tons, a decrease of 1,120 tons from the previous day [11]. - News: Powell opened the door for Fed rate cuts [11]. Lead - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of SHFE lead's main contract was 17,050, down 0.26%. The trading volume of SHFE lead's main contract was 43,201, a decrease of 23,393 from the previous day [14]. - Inventory: The inventory of SHFE lead was 30,705 tons, an increase of 1,136 tons from the previous day [14]. - News: Powell opened the door for Fed rate cuts; "New Fed Wire" said the Fed stays on the rate - cut track [15]. Tin - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of SHFE tin's main contract was 282,110, down 1.48%, and the night - session closing price was 282,800, down 0.26%. The trading volume of SHFE tin's main contract was 106,939, an increase of 1,793 from the previous day [17]. - Inventory: The inventory of SHFE tin was 5,745 tons, a decrease of 64 tons from the previous day [17]. - News: Multiple macro - and industry - news including Fed's rate - cut hints and international trade - related events [18]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Foundry Aluminum Alloy - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of SHFE aluminum's main contract was 20,860, down 25 from the previous day. The closing price of SHFE alumina's main contract was 2,805, down 15 from the previous day. The closing price of the aluminum - alloy main contract was 20,380, down 30 from the previous day [21]. - Inventory: The domestic aluminum - ingot social inventory was 64.20 million tons, unchanged from the previous day [21]. - News: Li Qiang emphasized expanding domestic demand and strengthening the domestic cycle [23]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of SHFE nickel's main contract was 120,830, down 580 from the previous day. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,565, down 90 from the previous day [24]. - Inventory: No significant inventory - related data emphasized in the text [24]. - News: Indonesian forestry group takes over a nickel - mine area; China suspends an unofficial subsidy for Russian copper and nickel imports; Indonesia sanctions mining companies; Trump may impose 100% tariffs on China [24][25][26]