研究所晨会观点精萃-20251015

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the game between China and the US persists, the Fed's balance - sheet reduction may near an end, the employment market has a downward risk, leading to a decline in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and a rise in global risk appetite. Domestically, economic growth accelerates, multiple industry stability - growth plans are introduced, but short - term Sino - US game and domestic risk - aversion sentiment exist. The market focuses on domestic incremental policies and Sino - US game, with weak short - term upward macro drivers [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends: stocks are in short - term high - level adjustment, bonds are in short - term oscillation, and different commodity sectors have different short - term trends such as oscillation or adjustment [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Macro: Overseas, the game between China and the US, Fed's balance - sheet reduction plan, and employment market situation affect the US dollar index and US Treasury yields. Domestically, economic growth accelerates, policies support multiple industries, and the market focuses on domestic policies and Sino - US game. Assets like stocks, bonds, and various commodities have different short - term trends [2]. - Stock Index: Affected by semiconductor, energy metal, and AI sectors, the domestic stock market falls. The economy grows, policies support, but short - term upward drivers are weak. Short - term cautious observation is recommended [3]. - Precious Metals: The precious metals market rises, with gold and silver prices increasing. Affected by trade uncertainty and Fed rate - cut expectations, they are in a short - term strong and long - term upward trend. Short - term, hold long positions or reduce at high prices; long - term, buy at low prices [3]. Black Metals - Steel: The domestic steel market is weak, with low - volume trading. Cost support weakens, and prices are expected to continue the weak trend in the short term [4]. - Iron Ore: The price of iron ore futures and spot falls. As steel mills' profits narrow, ore demand may decline. Supply shows a mixed trend, and a short - term bearish view is recommended [6]. - Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron: The spot prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron are stable, and the futures prices fall. Supply and demand are in a certain state, and the futures prices are expected to oscillate in a range [7]. - Soda Ash: The soda ash contract is weak. Supply is in the capacity - expansion period, demand increases marginally in the peak season. In the long - term, a bearish view is recommended due to supply - side contradictions [8]. - Glass: The glass contract is weak. Supply increases, and the new policy provides support. Demand improves marginally in the peak season but slows down after the holiday. It is expected to run weakly in the short - term range [8]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: Affected by trade concerns, copper prices fluctuate. The global copper output is expected to grow in 2026. The US economy and copper demand have uncertainties. Short - term, the domestic output is high, and demand faces challenges [9]. - Aluminum: Aluminum prices fall. Inventory increases, supply is rigid, demand weakens, and the price is difficult to rise significantly [10]. - Tin: The global tin supply is tight, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level, with support and pressure coexisting [10]. - Lithium Carbonate: The lithium carbonate contract rises slightly. Trade conflicts and warehouse - receipt cancellation bring pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate in a range [11]. - Industrial Silicon: The industrial silicon contract falls. Production reaches a new high, and the price is expected to oscillate in a range, with attention to cost support [11]. - Polysilicon: The polysilicon contract rises. Warehouse - receipt cancellation and supply - demand imbalance bring pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate, with attention to spot price support [12]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Oil prices are affected by trade signals, geopolitical factors, and port sanctions. Short - term, they oscillate; long - term, they are bearish [13][14]. - Asphalt: Asphalt is in a weak oscillation. The peak - season demand is near the end, inventory pressure increases, and it depends on crude - oil cost support [14]. - PX: PX oscillates weakly with the polyester sector. It has certain demand support but is likely to continue the weak trend [14]. - PTA: PTA prices are weak. Supply is high, demand is under pressure, and inventory increases [15]. - Ethylene Glycol: The inventory of ethylene glycol rises, demand is weak, and it is expected to accumulate inventory in October and run at a low price [15]. - Short - fiber: Short - fiber adjusts with the polyester sector. Terminal orders improve slightly, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [15]. - Methanol: Methanol prices oscillate weakly. Supply exceeds demand, inventory is high, and it is under pressure [16]. - PP: PP prices are weak. Supply and demand both increase, but new - capacity and trade - war factors bring pressure [16][17]. - LLDPE: LLDPE prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Supply pressure increases, demand recovers slowly, and it is affected by oil prices and trade [17]. - Urea: Urea prices rise slightly. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and it depends on export - policy implementation [18]. Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: US soybeans oscillate weakly due to demand uncertainty and lack of USDA reports [19]. - Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal: Domestic soybean meal contracts oscillate. In the long - term, the price may rise; in the short - term, inventory pressure exists, and it may oscillate at a low level [19]. - Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil: Soybean oil may accumulate inventory after the holiday and run weakly. Rapeseed oil inventory is being depleted and forms support [20]. - Palm Oil: Palm oil production increases in October, and exports also increase. The implementation of B50 in Indonesia has an impact on the market, and short - term demand growth is difficult [20][21]. - Pigs: Pig prices fall to a record low due to increased supply. With the expectation of consumption recovery in autumn and winter, prices may stabilize [21].