商品期货早班车-20251015

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, but the Fed's outlook is contradictory. The short - term prices of gold and silver are at historical highs, with potential for significant high - level fluctuations. For base metals, the market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, macro - policies, and trade frictions. In the black industry, the supply - demand relationship shows structural differentiation. The agricultural product market is influenced by factors like production, demand, and policies. The energy and chemical market is facing a situation where supply is increasing and demand is complex, with different trends for different products [1][2][5]. 3. Summary by Category Gold Market - Market Performance: International gold prices denominated in London Gold rose and then fell, closing at $4141 per ounce [1]. - Fundamentals: Powell's speech was interpreted as opening the door for Fed rate cuts. Fed Governor Bowman expected two rate cuts by the end of the year. There was an inflow of funds into domestic gold ETFs. COMEX gold inventory decreased by 2 tons to 1233 tons, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory increased by 2.2 tons to 72.2 tons. London's September gold inventory increased by 39 tons to 8839 tons. The global largest gold ETF - SPDR's holdings increased by 3 tons to 1021 tons [1]. - Trading Strategy: Hold long gold positions and hold long silver positions cautiously due to potential high - level fluctuations [1]. Base Metals Copper - Market Performance: Copper prices oscillated weakly [2]. - Fundamentals: Powell said the Fed would end balance - sheet reduction in the next few months. The supply of copper ore remained tight, and the spot premium of refined copper in East and South China varied [2]. - Trading Strategy: Wait for a new buying opportunity after sufficient consolidation [2]. Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract decreased by 0.12% to 20860 yuan/ton [2]. - Fundamentals: Aluminum smelters maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate decreased slightly [2]. - Trading Strategy: Temporarily wait and see, and pay attention to the progress of APEC on November 1st [2]. Alumina - Market Performance: The closing price of the main alumina contract decreased by 0.53% to 2805 yuan/ton [2]. - Fundamentals: Alumina plants maintained high - yield status, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - Trading Strategy: Temporarily wait and see, and focus on the impact of the heating season production restrictions and alumina plant shutdowns [2][3]. Zinc - Market Performance: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc 2510 contract decreased by 0.02% to 22,200 yuan/ton. The domestic zinc inventory increased [3]. - Fundamentals: Supply pressure persisted, and the production in October was expected to increase to over 620,000 tons. Consumption did not exceed expectations [3]. - Trading Strategy: Short at high prices [3]. Lead - Market Performance: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead 2509 contract decreased by 0.29% to 17,050 yuan/ton. The domestic lead inventory decreased [3]. - Fundamentals: Recycled lead smelters resumed production after maintenance, and the consumer side showed resilience. The lithium - battery export control policy was expected to drive some consumption back to lead - acid batteries [3]. - Trading Strategy: Trade within a range [3]. Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: The main contract price decreased by 3.24% to 8520 yuan/ton [3]. - Fundamentals: The number of open furnaces increased, and production was expected to decrease in the southwest in late October. Social inventory increased slightly, and demand was supported by the high start - up rate of polysilicon [3]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see, as the price is expected to oscillate between 8200 - 9300 yuan/ton [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The main contract LC2511 closed at 72,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.6% [3]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased, and demand from downstream products such as lithium - iron phosphate and ternary materials also increased. The market was expected to maintain a tight balance in October [3]. - Trading Strategy: Pay attention to the Sino - US leadership negotiations. Consider short - selling the far - month contracts due to the expected oversupply next year [3]. Polysilicon - Market Performance: The main contract price increased by 2.56% to 49990 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased slightly, and demand from downstream products was stable. The photovoltaic installation in August decreased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month [4]. - Trading Strategy: Focus on the progress of the state - purchase platform and the 11 - 12 spread. Consider buying out - of - the - money put options for low - risk investors [4]. Tin - Market Performance: Tin prices oscillated weakly [4]. - Fundamentals: Short - term tin ore supply was tight, but there was an expectation of future supply loosening. Traditional demand was a drag, and global visible inventory continued to decrease [4]. - Trading Strategy: Adopt a range - bound trading strategy in the short term [4]. Black Industry Rebar - Market Performance: The main rebar contract 2601 closed at 3052 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton [5]. - Fundamentals: Rebar demand was weak, and production was expected to decline due to low profits. Plate demand was stable [5]. - Trading Strategy: Hold short rebar positions, with the RB01 reference range of 3020 - 3090 yuan/ton [5]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: The main iron ore contract 2601 closed at 784 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton [5]. - Fundamentals: Australian and Brazilian shipments decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. Iron ore supply and demand were marginally neutral to strong, and inventory accumulation was expected to be slower than the historical average [5]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see, with the I01 reference range of 770 - 800 yuan/ton [5]. Coking Coal - Market Performance: The main coking coal contract 2601 closed at 1143.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.5 yuan/ton [5]. - Fundamentals: Steel mill profits were stabilizing, and the first round of price increases was implemented. Supply - side inventories were differentiated, and the futures were at a premium [5]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see, with the JM01 reference range of 1110 - 1170 yuan/ton [5]. Agricultural Product Market Soybean Meal - Market Performance: Overnight CBOT soybeans fell slightly [6]. - Fundamentals: US soybeans had a slight production decrease, and South America was expected to increase production. US soybean demand was differentiated, with increased crushing but weak export demand due to tariff policies [6]. - Trading Strategy: US soybeans were weak and range - bound. The domestic market was loose in the short term, with high mid - term uncertainty depending on the Sino - US tariff policy [6]. Corn - Market Performance: Corn futures prices rebounded slightly, while spot prices continued to fall [6]. - Fundamentals: Continuous rain in North China affected corn harvesting, increasing the risk of quality damage and storage difficulty. New - crop production was expected to increase, and costs decreased [6]. - Trading Strategy: Futures prices were expected to oscillate downward due to the pressure of new - crop listing [6]. Edible Oils - Market Performance: Malaysian palm oil prices fell in the short term [6]. - Fundamentals: Malaysian palm oil production decreased seasonally in September, and exports increased. The market continued to accumulate inventory in September with an expectation of future seasonal production decline [6]. - Trading Strategy: It was difficult to trade edible oils unilaterally, and the P contract was suitable for reverse spreads. Pay attention to production in the producing areas and biodiesel policies [6]. Cotton - Market Performance: Overnight US cotton futures prices oscillated downward, and international crude oil prices continued to weaken [6]. - Fundamentals: Brazil's 25/26 cotton production was expected to decrease by 1%. Zhengzhou cotton futures prices oscillated narrowly. China's textile and clothing exports from January to September decreased by 0.3% year - on - year [6]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see, with a trading strategy in the range of 13200 - 13600 yuan/ton [6]. Eggs - Market Performance: Egg futures prices rebounded slightly, and most spot prices remained stable [6]. - Fundamentals: Post - holiday demand weakened seasonally, while supply continued to increase. Egg inventory accumulated, and low vegetable prices dragged down egg prices [6]. - Trading Strategy: Futures prices were expected to weaken [6]. Pigs - Market Performance: Pig futures prices were weak, while spot prices rebounded slightly [7]. - Fundamentals: Post - holiday demand decreased significantly, and pig slaughter was expected to increase from October to November, increasing the supply - demand gap [7]. - Trading Strategy: Futures prices were expected to weaken [7]. Energy and Chemical Market LLDPE - Market Performance: The main LLDPE contract continued to decline slightly. The domestic spot price was 6900 yuan/ton, and the import window was closed [8]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased but at a slower pace, and demand improved seasonally in the agricultural film sector [8]. - Trading Strategy: In the short term, the market was expected to oscillate weakly. In the long term, as new plants were put into operation, the supply - demand pattern would loosen. Consider short - selling at high prices or reverse spreads [8]. PVC - Market Performance: The V01 contract closed at 4963, a decrease of 0.6% [8]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased with new plant production. Demand was weak due to low downstream start - up rates and negative real - estate indicators. Social inventory reached a new high [8]. - Trading Strategy: Short - sell or use reverse spreads due to the weak supply - demand balance [8]. PTA - Market Performance: The CFR China price of PX was $791 per ton, and the PTA spot price in East China was 4440 yuan/ton [8]. - Fundamentals: PX supply was high, and PTA supply pressure was relieved in the short term but large in the long term. Polyester factory load was high, and terminal orders improved structurally [8]. - Trading Strategy: PX prices were expected to oscillate weakly, and short - sell the processing fee of PTA's far - month contracts [8]. Rubber - Market Performance: The RU2601 contract closed at 14845 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.97% [9]. - Fundamentals: Thai raw material prices weakened, and rubber inventories in Qingdao changed. Spot prices were stable to weak [9]. - Trading Strategy: Hold short positions cautiously or wait and see due to the lack of short - term positive factors [9]. Glass - Market Performance: The FG01 contract closed at 1139, a decrease of 3.4% [9]. - Fundamentals: Glass supply was high, and inventory accumulated. Downstream demand was weak due to negative real - estate indicators [9]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see due to the weak supply - demand balance [9]. PP - Market Performance: The main PP contract continued to decline slightly. The domestic spot price was 6550 yuan/ton, the import window was closed, and the export window was open [9]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased, and demand improved seasonally during the "Golden September and Silver October" [9]. - Trading Strategy: In the short term, the market was expected to oscillate weakly. In the long term, as new plants were put into operation, the supply - demand pattern would loosen. Consider short - selling at high prices or reverse spreads [9]. MEG - Market Performance: The MEG spot price in East China was 4171 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 69 yuan/ton [9]. - Fundamentals: Supply pressure was high after new plant production. Import supply was expected to increase. Polyester factory load was high, and terminal orders improved structurally [9]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see in the short term due to low inventory and macro - volatility. Short - sell at high prices in the long term due to inventory accumulation pressure [9]. Crude Oil - Market Performance: Oil prices fell again due to Sino - US trade uncertainties and weak fundamentals [10]. - Fundamentals: Supply pressure increased as multiple countries planned to increase production, while demand decreased seasonally and was affected by trade frictions [10]. - Trading Strategy: Hold short SC positions [10]. Styrene - Market Performance: The main EB contract continued to decline slightly. The domestic spot price was 6650 yuan/ton, and the import window was closed [10]. - Fundamentals: Pure benzene and styrene inventories were at normal to high levels, and downstream demand was weak despite the seasonal peak [10]. - Trading Strategy: In the short term, the market was expected to oscillate weakly. In the long term, as supply increased, the supply - demand pattern would loosen. Consider short - selling at high prices or reverse spreads [10]. Soda Ash - Market Performance: The SA01 contract closed at 1234, a decrease of 0.7% [10]. - Fundamentals: Soda ash supply was high, and inventory accumulated during the National Day. Downstream demand from photovoltaic glass was stable but with high inventory [10]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see due to the supply - demand balance [10]. Caustic Soda - Market Performance: The SH01 contract closed at 2429, a decrease of 1% [10]. - Fundamentals: Caustic soda spot prices stopped falling, and futures prices continued to decline. Inventory accumulated, and non - aluminum demand recovery was less than expected [10]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see due to the supply - demand balance [10].