今日早评-20251015

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The current crude oil market faces multiple pressures such as increased supply, dim demand prospects, and cooling geopolitical risks, with weak fundamental driving forces [1]. - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut still exists, providing some support for precious metals. However, the market is at a high level with increasing divergence, so it's advisable to mainly observe [1]. - The fundamentals of coking coal lack support, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term due to factors like inventory changes and US tariff pressure [3]. - For manganese silicon, the cost support is acceptable, but the industry continues to be in a loss state. The demand is affected by trade frictions, and the price may have a downward space after the peak season [3]. - Steel prices may fluctuate weakly in the short - term due to general post - holiday demand, slow de - stocking, and insufficient cost support [4]. - For live pigs, the short - term pressure on the breeding end to sell still exists, and the space for a sharp rebound is small. It's recommended to wait and see [4]. - For palm oil, there is strong support, and it's advisable to pay attention to buying opportunities at low prices [5]. - For domestic soybeans, the situation of increased supply and weak demand continues in the short - term, but the downward space is limited, and it's advisable to try low - buying [6]. - For natural rubber, the current valuation is slightly low, and it's recommended to operate cautiously due to the greater impact of the macro - environment than the fundamentals [6]. - For PTA, the impact of short - term downstream demand expectations and crude oil on the price is large, and the benefits of maintenance are limited [7]. - For silver, it may fluctuate more in the short - term, and it's necessary to be cautious about chasing high [7]. - For medium - and long - term treasury bonds, the operation difficulty is increased, and it's advisable to pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw and think in a fluctuating way [8]. - For methanol, it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it's recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [9]. - For glass, it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it's recommended to wait and see until the price stabilizes after a pullback [10]. - For PVC, it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and it's recommended to hold short - positions cautiously [11]. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - IEA raised its forecast for global oil supply growth to 3 million barrels per day this year and 2.4 million barrels per day next year, while demand is expected to grow by only 710,000 barrels per day and 699,000 barrels per day respectively. Russian crude oil exports reached the highest level since June 2023 [1]. Gold - Fed Chairman Powell hinted at a possible stop to balance - sheet contraction and another 25 - basis - point interest rate cut this month [1]. Coking Coal - The inventory of downstream enterprises decreased significantly after the holiday. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 74.95% (- 0.05%), and the coking coal inventory was 819.32 (- 69.15) [3]. Manganese Silicon - The national capacity utilization rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 44.18% (- 1.50%), and the daily output was 29,490 tons (- 335 tons). The cost support is acceptable, but the industry is in a loss state [3]. Steel - On October 14, domestic steel prices continued to decline. The average price of 20mm third - grade seismic rebar in 31 major cities was 3,224 yuan/ton (- 11 yuan/ton) [4]. Live Pigs - On October 14, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 18.48 yuan/kg (+ 0.1%), and the price of eggs was 7.60 yuan/kg (- 2.1%) [4]. Palm Oil - Indonesia may regulate the export of crude palm oil, and the B50 plan may reduce global edible oil supply. However, the short - term price trend is still supported [5]. Soybeans - Brazil is expected to export 7.31 million tons of soybeans, 2.06 million tons of soybean meal, and 6.46 million tons of corn in October, all higher than last week's expectations [5]. Natural Rubber - Thai raw material prices are firm, and domestic mid - stream inventory is decreasing seasonally. In September, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 3 million for the first time in the same period of history [6]. PTA - The PTA load dropped to 75.4%. The new device of Xin Fengming was postponed due to low processing fees, and a new Indian device is planned to be put into production [7]. Silver - The IMF raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2025 to 3.2% (+ 0.2 percentage points) [7]. Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - Premier Li Qiang emphasized increasing counter - cyclical adjustment and expanding domestic demand [8]. Methanol - The domestic methanol start - up is at a high level, downstream demand has rebounded, and port inventory has accumulated. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [9]. Glass - The average price of float glass was 1,256 yuan/ton (- 5 yuan/ton), the inventory increased by 5.84%, and the order days of deep - processing enterprises increased by 4.9% [10]. PVC - The PVC capacity utilization rate was 82.63% (+ 1.21%), social inventory increased by 1.84%, and the average profit of production enterprises was negative [11].