上游跌价抵触，猪价低位震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and Fats: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate [5]. - Protein Meal: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate [6]. - Corn and Starch: Expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. - Hogs: Expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. - Natural Rubber: Expected to fluctuate; 20 - rubber is expected to fluctuate [10]. - Synthetic Rubber: Expected to fluctuate [14]. - Cotton: Expected to fluctuate weakly [15]. - Sugar: Expected to fluctuate weakly [16]. - Pulp: Expected to fluctuate weakly [20]. - Offset Paper: Expected to fluctuate [21]. - Logs: Expected to fluctuate weakly [23]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market trends of various agricultural products, including supply - demand relationships, inventory changes, and policy impacts. Overall, most agricultural products are expected to face a situation of weak fluctuations in the short - to - medium term, with a few showing potential for long - term improvement [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Views - Oils and Fats: Due to factors such as the smooth progress of Brazilian soybean planting, the "shutdown" of the US government affecting data updates, and changes in Indonesian biodiesel policies, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate. The domestic soybean oil inventory may peak and decline, while palm oil may continue to accumulate inventory, and rapeseed oil inventory may continue to decrease [5]. - Protein Meal: The current supply pressure is dominant. With the smooth progress of US soybean harvesting, poor export prospects, and rapid sowing in South America, soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate. The domestic supply of soybean meal is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, and the consumption demand is expected to be stable or slightly increase [6]. - Corn and Starch: New grain sales pressure is coming, and the futures and spot prices continue to decline. In the short term, the new grain harvest pressure needs to be resolved, and there is a risk of a short - term rebound due to tight inventory. In the long term, the corn market is expected to be in a pattern of short - term weakness and long - term strength [7]. - Hogs: After continuous price declines, farmers resist price cuts, and a small amount of second - fattening has entered the market. Supply is abundant in the short - term, and the demand is in the off - season after the National Day. In the long term, if the "anti - involution" policy is implemented, the supply pressure is expected to ease in the second half of 2026 [8]. - Natural Rubber: Due to weak fundamentals and the impact of the overall commodity atmosphere, the price center has moved down slightly. The macro factor accounts for a large proportion, and it is recommended to wait and see. It is expected to maintain a fluctuating bottom - seeking trend [10]. - Synthetic Rubber: The market sentiment is weak, the cost side is weakening, and the overall production this year is high, resulting in high inventory. It is expected to maintain a fluctuating bottom - grinding trend, and there is a possibility of hitting a new low for the year [14]. - Cotton: Based on the expectation of a large increase in production in the new season, the cotton price is expected to fluctuate weakly. Before the large - increase production expectation is disproven, the operation idea is to short on rebounds [15]. - Sugar: In October, Brazil's sugar exports increased significantly, and both domestic and international sugar prices declined. In the long - term, the global sugar market is expected to have an oversupply situation, and the sugar price is expected to continue to decline [18]. - Pulp: In the short term, the futures price is sideways, and the spot price has increased. The main reason is the large virtual - to - real ratio of the 01 contract. Fundamentally, there are more negative factors, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [20]. - Offset Paper: The spot price is stable, and the futures price fluctuates. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and there is pressure to lower prices in the tender [21]. - Logs: The delivery side is negative, and the futures price is in a weak state. The demand is weak, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [23]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists various agricultural product varieties, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, starch, hogs, cotton, sugar, pulp, offset paper, and logs, but specific data monitoring details are not provided in the text [25][45][58]. 3.3 Commodity Index - Composite Index: The comprehensive index, specialty index (including the Commodity 20 Index and the Industrial Products Index), and sector index (Agricultural Products Index) are presented. The Agricultural Products Index increased by 0.06% on October 14, 2025, decreased by 1.81% in the past 5 days, decreased by 5.08% in the past month, and decreased by 3.22% since the beginning of the year [182][184].