Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Tariff concerns persist, limiting the upside potential of base metals. Although Trump's tariff threat has a negative impact, the marginal negative effect is weakening. The potential incremental stimulus policies can partially offset the negative impact of the tariff policy. In the short - to medium - term, the supply - demand of base metals is expected to tighten, supporting prices. Long - term, there are still expectations of incremental stimulus policies and supply disturbances for copper, aluminum, and tin [3]. - Copper: Trade frictions lead to a short - term decline in copper prices. Supply constraints exist, and long - term, the price center may shift upward [8][9]. - Alumina: The fundamentals are still weak, and the price is under pressure [9]. - Aluminum: Pay attention to consumption changes, and the price fluctuates at a high level. In the medium - term, the price center may shift upward [12][13]. - Aluminum alloy: The cost provides support, and the price fluctuates within a range. Consider cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [13][14]. - Zinc: Inventory continues to accumulate, and the price fluctuates with non - ferrous metals. In the long - term, there is a risk of price decline [15]. - Lead: Recycled lead smelters are about to resume production, and the price fluctuates downward [16]. - Nickel: LME nickel inventory exceeds 240,000 tons, and the price fluctuates widely. Short - term, it is in a wide - range shock; long - term, it is under observation [18][20]. - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron weakens, and the stainless - steel price drops. Short - term, it is expected to fluctuate within a range [21][24]. - Tin: Supply constraints remain, and the price fluctuates [24]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Copper - Information analysis: Trump plans to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods from November 1st; the US federal government shuts down; in September, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 5.05 tons month - on - month; on October 14th, the spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was at a premium of 50 yuan/ton; as of October 13th, copper inventory increased by 0.57 tons; there is a strike risk at Los Pelambres copper mine [8]. - Main logic: Macroscopically, Trump's tariff plan reduces market risk appetite. Supply - side disturbances increase, and demand shows resilience. Cautious investors can gradually take profit on long positions [9]. - Outlook: In the long - term, the copper price center may shift upward; short - term, it will fluctuate [9]. 2. Alumina - Information analysis: On October 14th, the northern spot comprehensive price of alumina was 2890 yuan; the national weighted index was 2924.4 yuan, down 5.5 yuan; the alumina warehouse receipt was 210,994 tons, up 13,836 tons [9][11]. - Main logic: The macro sentiment amplifies the price fluctuation. The fundamentals are weak, but the decline in ore long - term contracts in the fourth quarter limits the downside space. There may be smelter production cuts [10]. - Outlook: In the short - term, it will fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [12]. 3. Aluminum - Information analysis: On October 14th, the SMM AOO average price was 20,900 yuan/ton; on October 13th, the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory and aluminum rod inventory increased; on October 14th, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt was 63,176 tons, up 25 tons; Rio Tinto's third - quarter electrolytic aluminum production increased by 6% year - on - year [12]. - Main logic: The macro environment is positive. The supply side has increasing production capacity, and the demand side has improving expectations. Observe post - holiday demand and inventory [13]. - Outlook: In the short - term, it will fluctuate within a range; in the medium - term, the price center may shift upward [13]. 4. Aluminum Alloy - Information analysis: On October 14th, the price of Baotai ADC12 was 20,500 yuan/ton; the SMM AOO average price was 20,900 yuan/ton; the Baotai ADC12 - A00 was - 400 yuan/ton; the SHFE registered warehouse receipt was 42,566 tons, up 629 tons; in September, the retail sales of passenger cars and new - energy passenger cars increased [13][14]. - Main logic: The cost is supported, the supply - side production increases marginally, and the demand side shows marginal improvement. The inventory accumulates. Consider cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [14]. - Outlook: In the short - term, participate in cross - variety arbitrage opportunities; in the medium - term, it will fluctuate within a range [14]. 5. Zinc - Information analysis: On October 14th, the spot price of 0 zinc in different regions was at a discount; as of October 14th, the SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory increased by 1.29 tons; 29Metals postponed high - grade zinc ore mining [15]. - Main logic: Macroscopically, Trump's tariff plan has a negative impact. The short - term zinc ore supply is loose, and the demand is average. In the long - term, the price may decline [15]. - Outlook: In October, the zinc ingot inventory may continue to accumulate. The price will fluctuate [16]. 6. Lead - Information analysis: On October 14th, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,000 yuan/ton; the SMM1 lead ingot price was 16,800 - 16,950 yuan; the domestic lead ingot social inventory decreased; the SHFE lead warehouse receipt increased; after the holiday, the supply of lead will gradually increase [16]. - Main logic: The spot price is stable, the supply side has increasing production, and the demand side has high - level demand. The price will fluctuate [17]. - Outlook: The price will fluctuate as the supply - demand is in a slightly surplus state [17]. 7. Nickel - Information analysis: On October 14th, the LME nickel inventory was 243,258 tons, up 1,164 tons; the SHFE nickel warehouse receipt was 25,027 tons, down 245 tons; Antam and CATL signed cooperation agreements; the RKAB application process is delayed; Vale's nickel - iron plant increased production capacity [18][19]. - Main logic: The market sentiment dominates the price. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. The price will fluctuate widely in the short - term and be under observation in the long - term [20]. - Outlook: In the short - term, it will fluctuate widely; in the long - term, it is under observation [20]. 8. Stainless Steel - Information analysis: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt decreased; on October 14th, the spot price of Foshan Hongwang 304 was at a premium; an accident occurred at an HPAL project in Indonesia; the price of high - nickel pig iron decreased [21]. - Main logic: The price of nickel iron weakens, and the chromium price is stable. After the peak season, there may be structural over - supply [22]. - Outlook: The price will fluctuate within a range in the short - term, depending on inventory and cost [24]. 9. Tin - Information analysis: On October 14th, the LME tin warehouse receipt inventory was unchanged; the SHFE tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 118 tons; the SHFE tin position decreased by 1,121 lots; the spot price of 1 tin decreased by 400 yuan/ton [24]. - Main logic: Supply disturbances increase during the National Day. The supply side is tight, providing strong support for the price [24]. - Outlook: The price will fluctuate as the supply side is tight [24].
中信期货：关税担忧仍在，基本金属上方高度受限
Zhong Xin Qi Huo·2025-10-15 02:44