尿素早评：关键还是在出口-20251015

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2) Core View of the Report - The rebound of the urea futures market is mainly due to short - term profit - taking by short sellers. The spot market remains dull, and the previously expected upward drivers (chemical anti - involution and exports) have not materialized. If there is no further change in exports and domestic agricultural demand weakens, domestic demand may struggle to absorb high supply pressure, and urea prices may continue to fluctuate at low levels. However, the current valuation of urea is low, and further short - selling is not recommended. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see. [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices (Closing Prices) - UR01: On October 14, it was 1597.00 yuan/ton, down 13.00 yuan (-0.81%) from October 13 [1] - UR05: On October 14, it was 1671.00 yuan/ton, down 7.00 yuan (-0.42%) from October 13 [1] - UR09: On October 14, it was 1707.00 yuan/ton, down 3.00 yuan (-0.18%) from October 13 [1] Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule Urea) - Shandong: On October 14, it was 1550.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan (1.31%) from October 13 [1] - Shanxi: On October 14, it was 1460.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan (0.69%) from October 13 [1] - Henan: On October 14, it was 1540.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan (1.32%) from October 13 [1] - Hebei: On October 14, it was 1590.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan (1.27%) from October 13 [1] - Northeast: On October 14, it was 1620.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan (-0.61%) from October 13 [1] - Jiangsu: On October 14, it was 1560.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan (1.96%) from October 13 [1] Spreads - Shandong Spot - UR01: On October 14, it was - 121.00 yuan/ton, up 27.00 yuan from October 13 [1] - 01 - 05 Spread: On October 14, it was - 74.00 yuan/ton, down 6.00 yuan from October 13 [1] Upstream Costs - Anthracite Coal Price (Henan): On October 14, it was 1000.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 13 [1] - Anthracite Coal Price (Shanxi): On October 14, it was 880.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 13 [1] Downstream Prices - Compound Fertilizer (45%S) Price (Shandong): On October 14, it was 2900.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 13 [1] - Compound Fertilizer (45%S) Price (Henan): On October 14, it was 2500.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 13 [1] - Melamine Price (Shandong): On October 14, it was 5084.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 13 [1] - Melamine Price (Jiangsu): On October 14, it was 5100.00 yuan/ton, down 100.00 yuan (-1.92%) from October 13 [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1606 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1616 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1592 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1597 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1602 yuan/ton. The position volume of 2601 was 321992 lots. [1]