集运日报：各船司发布调价通知，短期缺少挺价条件，盘面或低位震荡，不建议继续加仓，设置好止损。-20251015

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term lack of conditions to support price increases, with the futures market likely to fluctuate at a low level. Do not recommend further adding positions and set stop - losses [2]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current focus is on the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the process of bottom - building, suggesting light - position participation or observation [5]. - In the short - term, the main contract remains weak while the far - month contracts are stronger, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - preferring investors are advised to take profits. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses. In the context of international turmoil, each contract still follows seasonal logic with large fluctuations, so it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. In the long - term, each contract is advised to take profits when the price rises, and then wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback before judging the subsequent direction [6]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 SCFIS, NCFI and Other Freight Rate Indexes - On October 13, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1031.8 points, a 1.4% decrease from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 862.48 points, a 1.6% decrease from the previous period [3]. - On October 10, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 818.97 points, an 11.50% increase from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 698.67 points, an 11.39% increase from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 844.43 points, a 0.34% decrease from the previous period [3]. - On October 10, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1160.42 points, a 45.90 - point increase from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 1068 USD/TEU, a 9.9% increase from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 1468 USD/FEU, a 10.76% increase from the previous period [3]. - On October 10, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1014.78 points, a 6.7% decrease from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1287.15 points, an 8.2% decrease from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 777.77 points, a 5.7% decrease from the previous period [3]. 3.2 PMI Data - In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.4%, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing prosperity level. The Composite PMI Output Index was 50.5%, a 0.3 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, indicating that the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities has accelerated [4]. - In September, the preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI was 49.5, falling below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The preliminary value of the service industry PMI rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The preliminary value of the Eurozone's composite PMI was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The Eurozone's Sentix Investor Confidence Index in September was - 9.2, with an expected value of - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [3]. - In September, the preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 52 (the final value in August was 53); the preliminary value of the service industry PMI was 53.9 (the final value in August was 54.5); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 53.6 (the final value in August was 54.6) [4]. 3.3 Market and Policy - related Information - The extension of Sino - US tariffs continues, and the negotiation has not made substantial progress. The tariff war has gradually evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. Currently, the spot price has decreased slightly [5]. - On October 10, the main contract 2512 closed at 1570.0, a 3.04% decline, with a trading volume of 31,500 lots and an open interest of 28,100 lots, an increase of 3834 lots from the previous day [5]. - The situation in the Middle East continues to improve. Although the SCFI index has rebounded, the overall atmosphere remains bearish, and the market is under pressure to decline. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rate conditions [5]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 18%. The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [6]. 3.4 Geopolitical Information - According to Israeli Army Radio on October 10, the Israeli Defense Forces will soon withdraw to the "preliminary withdrawal line" area as per US President Trump's plan. This withdrawal line is roughly the same as the control line of the Israeli army in the Gaza Strip before the large - scale offensive on Gaza City in September. The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas has come into effect, and the Israeli army has stopped military operations in the Gaza Strip. However, according to reports from Al - Jazeera and the Palestinian Holy City News Network, the Israeli army's attacks on multiple areas such as Gaza City and Khan Younis are still ongoing [7]. - According to CCTV News on the evening of October 9, Khalil al - Hayya, a senior Hamas official and chief negotiator, issued a statement announcing the achievement of a cease - fire agreement. This is the first public statement by the Hamas negotiation delegation since the first - stage cease - fire agreement in Gaza was reached. Khalil al - Hayya said that Hamas has received guarantees from mediators including the US. "The war in Gaza is over." Khalil al - Hayya mentioned the cease - fire, the withdrawal of the Israeli army, the entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza, the opening of border ports, and the exchange of Israeli detainees and Palestinian prisoners in the statement, but did not mention issues such as Hamas' disarmament and the transfer of Gaza's management rights in US President Trump's "20 - point plan" [7].