甲醇日评：做多仍需等待-20251015

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report's view on methanol is that it will experience low-level fluctuations, and it's necessary to wait before going long. Methanol prices are relatively high compared to upstream coal and downstream polyolefin prices, and the short - term upward driving force is limited due to high port inventory pressure and insufficient downstream restocking drive. The inventory turning point may be around mid - November, and potential future drivers lie in possible supply reductions, such as Iran's gas restriction expectations [1]. - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see, with a view score of 0 [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - Methanol Futures Prices: On October 14, 2025, MA01 was 2274 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan or 2.90% from October 11; MA05 was 2300 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan or 2.29%; MA09 was 2259 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan or 2.55% [1]. - Methanol Spot Prices: In Shandong, it was 2305 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan or 0.11%; in Guangdong, 2267.5 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan or 1.09%; in Shaanxi, 2080 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan or 0.12%; in Sichuan - Chongqing, 2200 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.23%; in Hubei, 2280 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan or 3.39%; in Inner Mongolia, 2077.5 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.24% [1]. - Coal Spot Prices: The price of Buzhou Kes Q5500 was 525 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan or 1.45%; Datong Q5500 was 602.5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 1.69%; Yulin Q6000 was 595 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan or 1.28% [1]. - Industrial Natural Gas Prices: In Hohhot and Chongqing, there was no change at 3.21 yuan/cubic meter and 3.14 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1]. 2. Profit Situations - Methanol Production Profits: Coal - based methanol profit remained at 318.5 yuan/ton, with no change; natural gas - based methanol profit was - 502 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - Downstream Product Profits: Northwest MTO profit was - 195.4 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or 18.14%; East China MTO profit was - 861.07 yuan/ton, up 38.5 yuan or 4.28%; acetic acid profit was 585 yuan/ton, up 23.13 yuan or 4.12%; MTBE profit was 530.2 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 3.64%; formaldehyde and dimethyl ether profits remained unchanged at - 268 yuan/ton and 340 yuan/ton respectively [1]. 3. Market Information - Domestic Market: The main methanol contract MA2601 weakened, opening at 2345 yuan/ton, closing at 2274 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan/ton, with trading volume of 1237490 lots and open interest of 1051360, showing reduced volume and increased open interest [1]. - Foreign Market: The US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) added 13 Chinese companies to the SDN list and sanctioned multiple ships. As of now, 11 ships are sanctioned by the US State Department, accounting for about 12% of the shipping capacity from a certain Middle - Eastern country [1].