Report Industry Investment Rating - Most of the energy and chemical products in the report are rated as "Oscillating Weakly", including crude oil, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, ethylene glycol, PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, propylene, PP, plastic, styrene, PVC. Some are rated as "Oscillating", such as PVC and caustic soda [3][7][8] Core Viewpoints - The overall energy and chemical market is under pressure. Crude oil's fundamentals are continuously pressured due to the increase in supply and the weakening of geopolitical support. Most energy and chemical products' prices are affected by the decline in oil prices and the weakening of the macro - environment. New device investment news in the chemical industry also impacts market expectations [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Overview - Crude oil futures have broken below the lower edge of the shock platform, and the global crude oil supply is expected to exceed demand by nearly 4 million barrels per day in 2026, creating a record high annual surplus. The price structure of Brent and China's SC has changed to Contango. Chemical industry has new device investment news, such as 3 million tons of new PTA devices and 600,000 tons of new styrene devices, which may be put into production before the end of October [2] 2. Variety Analysis Crude Oil - The IEA月报 slightly lowered the demand forecast and raised the supply forecast, increasing concerns about surplus. The global supply is in an increasing period dominated by the high - growth rate of OPEC + production, and there is pressure on crude oil inventory accumulation. Geopolitical support is weakening, and macro - risks are fluctuating [7] Asphalt - The asphalt futures price follows the decline of crude oil. The OPEC + group's production increase, the reduction of Saudi Arabia's export discount to Asia, and the cooling of the Middle East situation have led to a decline in geopolitical premiums. The supply of asphalt is increasing, and the pressure on inventory accumulation is still large [8] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Both follow the decline of crude oil. For high - sulfur fuel oil, the end of the Palestine - Israel conflict is a negative factor, and the demand is still weak. Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, the substitution of green energy, and the increase in supply [8][10] Methanol - Affected by the drag of olefins and high inventory, the price is in a shock - finishing state. The high inventory and the expectation of winter reduction still affect the price. The parking time of Iranian methanol enterprises in winter has been gradually extended in the past three years [2] Urea - The market sentiment has declined, and the price is under pressure. The spot price has increased, but the futures price has decreased due to the weakening of market sentiment [19][20] Ethylene Glycol - The inflection point of port inventory has appeared, and there is pressure on supply - demand expectations. The market is in a state of small inventory accumulation in the short term [13] PX - The decline in oil prices has led to the collapse of costs, and there is no new positive news in supply and demand. The supply side still maintains a high load, and the price is affected by cost disturbances [11] PTA - The news of new device investment has depressed market expectations. Under the resonance of cost and supply - demand, the price is under pressure. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the basis remains weak [11] Short - Fiber - Affected by cost, the price has decreased, but the supply - demand pattern is acceptable, and the processing fee has increased slightly [15] Bottle - Chip - The collapse of cost has led to the decline of price. The processing fee is relatively stable, and the export price has been lowered [16] Propylene - The cost has decreased, and the tariff game has restarted, resulting in a weak shock [25] PP - The support from the raw material side is limited, and the price has decreased. The supply is increasing, and the demand support is limited [24] Plastic - Affected by the decline in oil prices and macro - disturbances, the price is in a weak shock. The upper - middle reaches have the intention to reduce inventory, which suppresses the price [23] Styrene - There are still concerns about inventory over - filling. Although the supply - demand situation has slightly improved, the high port inventory is still a major pressure [13] PVC - The fundamentals are under pressure, and the price is in a shock state. The cost has decreased, the production has declined due to autumn maintenance, and the downstream demand is weak [26] Caustic Soda - The spot price has stabilized, and the futures price can stop profit when it is low. The short - term supply - demand situation has improved, but attention should be paid to future inventory replenishment and profit changes [27] 3. Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - It includes cross - period spreads, basis and warehouse receipts, and cross - variety spreads of various energy and chemical products, reflecting the price differences and changes between different varieties and different periods [29][30][32] Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although specific data are not detailed in the text, it is expected to monitor the basis and spread changes of chemical products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc. [33][45][57] 4. Commodity Index - On October 14, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index of the commodity index all showed a decline. The energy index also declined, with a daily decline of 0.75%, a 5 - day decline of 5.67%, a 1 - month decline of 6.59%, and a decline of 7.87% since the beginning of the year [274][276]
SC全?转为熊市结构，芳烃新产能有释放
Zhong Xin Qi Huo·2025-10-15 02:51