螺纹钢：弱现实叠加预期转弱，钢价或小幅回调，热轧卷板：弱现实叠加预期转弱，钢价或小幅回调

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - For both rebar and hot - rolled coil, the combination of weak current situation and weakening expectations may lead to a slight decline in steel prices [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: - Rebar (RB2601): Yesterday's closing price was 3,061 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.81%); trading volume was 1,158,107 lots, open interest was 1,991,462 lots, with an increase of 38,714 lots [1] - Hot - rolled coil (HC2601): Yesterday's closing price was 3,241 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton (-0.70%); trading volume was 532,924 lots, open interest was 1,451,729 lots, with an increase of 29,205 lots [1] - Spot Price Data: - Rebar: Prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Guangzhou decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou decreased by 20 - 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; Tangshan billet price remained unchanged at 2,940 yuan/ton [1] - Basis and Spread Data: - The basis of RB2601 was 149 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton from the previous day; the basis of HC2601 was 49 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - RB2601 - RB2605 spread was - 53, up 3; HC2601 - HC2605 spread was 154, up 58; HC2601 - RB2601 spread was 180, up 2; HC2605 - RB2605 spread was 134, down 1; the spot coil - rebar spread was - 16, down 20 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Production Data in Early October 2025: Key steel enterprises produced 20.32 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.032 million tons (a 7.5% daily increase); 18.75 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.875 million tons (a 3.2% daily increase); 19.61 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.961 million tons (an 8.5% daily decrease). It is estimated that the national daily output of crude steel was 2.51 million tons (a 7.5% increase), pig iron was 2.25 million tons (a 3.2% increase), and steel was 4.07 million tons (a 1.7% decrease) [3] - Inventory Data in Early October 2025: The steel inventory of key enterprises was 15.88 million tons, an increase of 1.21 million tons (8.2%) from the previous ten - day period, 3.51 million tons (28.4%) from the beginning of the year, 60,000 tons (0.6%) from the same ten - day period of last month, 1.15 million tons (7.8%) from the same ten - day period of last year, and a decrease of 480,000 tons (2.9%) from the same ten - day period of the year before last [3] - Import and Export Data in August 2025: China exported 9.51 million tons of steel, a 3.3% monthly decrease, with an average export price of 698.0 US dollars/ton, basically the same as the previous month. From January to August, the cumulative export was 77.49 million tons, a 9.8% year - on - year increase, with an average export price of 699.1 US dollars/ton, a 10.1% year - on - year decrease. In August, China imported 500,000 tons of steel, a 10.4% monthly increase, with an average import price of 1,653.0 US dollars/ton, an 8.4% monthly decrease. From January to August, the cumulative import was 3.977 million tons, a 14.1% year - on - year decrease, with an average import price of 1,697.7 US dollars/ton, a 1.5% year - on - year increase [3] - Weekly Data on October 8: - Production: Rebar production decreased by 36,200 tons, hot - rolled coil production decreased by 14,000 tons, and the total production of five major varieties decreased by 37,600 tons [3] - Total inventory: Rebar inventory increased by 239,600 tons, hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 299,200 tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties increased by 692,300 tons [3] - Apparent demand: Rebar apparent demand decreased by 950,600 tons, hot - rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 336,400 tons, and the total apparent demand of five major varieties decreased by 1.6937 million tons [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rebar is 0, and that of hot - rolled coil is also 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4]