综合晨报-20251015

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - The mid - term outlook for crude oil remains bearish, and attention should be paid to the impact of Sino - US talks during the APAG meeting at the end of the month on risk sentiment [2]. - Precious metals have a solid long - term upward logic, but in the short term, due to over - bought signs, it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - For most commodities, factors such as Sino - US trade frictions, supply - demand imbalances, and policy changes have significant impacts on their prices and market trends [2][3][20] Summary by Categories Metals - Copper: Prices fell overnight. The market expects the Fed to continue cutting interest rates this month. The previous options combination strategy is continued [4]. - Aluminum: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. In the short term, it will mainly fluctuate, and the upside space should be viewed with caution [5]. - Alumina: Supply is in obvious surplus, and it will mainly operate weakly [6]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. Whether the price difference with Shanghai aluminum can continue to narrow remains to be observed [7]. - Zinc: LME zinc inventory increased slightly. Shanghai zinc is expected to consolidate between 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Lead: LME lead inventory increased, and Shanghai lead has short - term downward pressure, with support at 16,800 - 16,900 yuan/ton [9]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Shanghai nickel operates weakly, and the center of gravity tends to move down [10]. - Tin: Overnight, Shanghai and LME tin prices fell. Short positions can be held against 290,000 yuan, or call options with an exercise price of 300,000 yuan for the 2511 contract can be sold [11]. - Carbonate Lithium: The futures price rebounded slightly, but there is a short - term callback risk [11]. - Polysilicon: After approaching the lower end of the range, the futures price rebounded significantly, but the upside space is still limited [12]. - Industrial Silicon: In October, the risk of inventory accumulation is relatively high, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate [13]. - Iron Ore: The overnight futures price fluctuated. It is expected to mainly fluctuate at a high level [15]. - Coke: The price rebounded after hitting the bottom during the day. The support near the previous low is relatively solid [16]. - Coking Coal: The price rebounded after hitting the bottom during the day. The support near the previous low is relatively solid [17]. - Manganese Silicon: The price mainly fluctuated during the day. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [18]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon: The price mainly fluctuated during the day. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [19]. Energy - Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Overnight, they followed the decline of crude oil - related varieties. High - sulfur fuel oil may face medium - term supply pressure, while low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak fundamental situation [21]. - Asphalt: The supply - demand remains in a tight balance. The far - month contract is more under pressure [22]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: There is a lack of positive support [23]. - Urea: The market demand is weak, and the supply - demand pattern is loose [24]. - Methanol: The main contract fell. Attention should be paid to port inventory changes and the impact of Sino - US trade disputes [24]. - Pure Benzene: The price fell. The industry valuation is low, and the impact of oil prices should be noted [25]. - Styrene: Some local producers cut prices, and downstream procurement is cautious [26]. - Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene: The supply pressure increases, and the prices are under pressure [27]. - PVC and Caustic Soda: PVC may fluctuate weakly, while caustic soda's downward range is expected to be limited [28]. - PX and PTA: The prices continued to decline. PTA's supply - demand outlook is weak [29]. - Ethylene Glycol: The price is at the bottom of the range, and the downward resistance increases. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade relations [30]. Agricultural Products - Soybeans and Soybean Meal: The supply in the fourth quarter is generally stable, but there may be a supply shortage in the first quarter of next year. It is advisable to wait and see [35]. - Soybean Oil and Palm Oil: Oils are expected to be more resilient in the long - term. It is advisable to go long after the price bottoms out [36]. - Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil: It is recommended to use rapeseed - related products as a short - side configuration in cross - competitor strategies. The prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [37]. - Soybean No.1: Domestic soybeans continued to rebound. Attention should be paid to policies and fundamentals [38]. - Corn: The futures price rebounded at the bottom. The bottom is approaching [39]. - Pigs: The futures price rebounded with reduced positions. There is upward support for next year's second - half contracts [40]. - Eggs: The futures price rebounded with reduced positions. The near - month contracts should be shorted, and the far - month contracts can be longed [41]. - Cotton: The demand for US cotton is expected to remain weak. It is advisable to wait and see [42]. - Sugar: The international market supply is sufficient. Attention should be paid to the weather and sugarcane growth in Guangxi [43]. - Apples: The futures price fluctuated at a high level. It is advisable to maintain a short - side thinking [44]. - Timber: The futures price continued to correct. It is advisable to wait and see [45]. - Pulp: The futures price rose. Attention should be paid to port inventory changes [46]. Others - Container Shipping Index (European Line): After initially digesting the price - increase expectations, the market is expected to return to fluctuations. The focus will be on the actual implementation of price support in November [20]. - Stock Index: The market sentiment fluctuates between risk - aversion and optimism. The medium - term allocation should focus on the technology growth sector, but attention should be paid to possible sector rotations [47]. - Treasury Bonds: The bond market will gradually enter the repair stage. The probability of a steeper yield curve increases [48].