申银万国期货早间策略-20251015

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - After high-level fluctuations in September, the stock index is expected to enter a direction - selection phase again, with a high probability of maintaining a bullish trend [2] - In the short term, due to Sino - US trade issues, market risk - aversion sentiment may intensify, and stock market volatility may increase [2] - Domestically, the liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and residents may increase their allocation of equity assets. With the Fed's interest rate cut and RMB appreciation, external funds are also expected to flow into the domestic market [2] - In the fourth quarter, considering the potential intensification of growth - stabilizing policies and the possible resonance of global monetary and fiscal policies, the market style may shift towards value and become more balanced compared to the third quarter [2] Summary by Directory 1. Stock Index Futures Market - IF Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts decreased, with declines ranging from - 0.87% to - 1.19%. Trading volumes varied, and changes in open interest showed a mixed pattern, with some decreasing and some increasing [1] - IH Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts had minor changes, with small increases or decreases. Trading volumes and open - interest changes also showed different trends [1] - IC Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts decreased significantly, with declines of up to - 2.99%. Trading volumes were relatively large, and open - interest changes were mixed [1] - IM Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts decreased, with declines between - 1.78% and - 2.18%. Trading volumes were substantial, and open - interest changes were a combination of increases and decreases [1] - Inter - month Spreads: The current values of inter - month spreads for some contracts changed compared to the previous values [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - Major Indexes: The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes all showed different degrees of decline, with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 having relatively larger declines [1] - Industry Indexes: In the CSI 300 industry indexes, the main consumption and real - estate finance sectors had positive growth rates, while the pharmaceutical and information technology sectors had negative growth rates [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The basis values of different contracts relative to their corresponding indexes changed compared to the previous two days [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Domestic indexes such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and others showed declines, while information on overseas indexes like the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, and S&P was also provided [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - Chinese Premier Li Qiang emphasized the need to implement counter - cyclical adjustments, expand domestic demand, and create a first - class industrial ecosystem [2] - China countered the US' 301 investigation on its maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors by restricting transactions with relevant US subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean [2] - Fed Chair Powell hinted at a possible end to balance - sheet reduction and a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut this month [2] - The central bank's monetary policy department stated that the RMB exchange rate will remain stable in the long - term [2] 6. Industry Information - Relevant authorities may issue a document to regulate photovoltaic production capacity, including restrictions on capacity utilization and a ban on new capacity [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission will support energy - saving and carbon - reduction transformations in key industries [2] - In September, China's automobile production and sales reached new highs, with significant year - on - year growth, and new - energy vehicle production and sales also set records [2] - Shanghai aims to boost the intelligent terminal industry, targeting a total scale of over 300 billion yuan by 2027 [2]