西南期货早间评论-20251015

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - For most commodities, the market shows various trends and risks, and different trading strategies are recommended according to the specific situation of each commodity [5][7][9] - Some commodities have experienced significant price changes, and investors are advised to take corresponding profit - taking or risk - control measures [8][10] 3. Summary by Commodity Treasury Bonds - Previous trading day: Treasury bond futures opened low and closed higher across the board, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rising 0.34%, 0.11%, 0.10%, and 0.02% respectively [5] - Market situation: The central bank conducted 91 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 91 billion yuan. The IMF slightly raised the global economic growth forecast for this year. The macro - economy has stable data but weak recovery momentum, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose [5][6] - Strategy: It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution should be maintained [6] Stock Index Futures - Previous trading day: Stock index futures showed mixed performance, with the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM falling by 1.14%, 0.09%, 2.93%, and 2.16% respectively [7] - Market situation: The domestic economy is stable but has weak recovery momentum, and corporate profit growth is at a low level. However, domestic asset valuations are low, and the economy has sufficient resilience. Market sentiment has warmed up, and incremental funds have entered the market [7] - Strategy: It is expected that volatility will increase, and existing long positions can be gradually liquidated for profit [8] Precious Metals - Previous trading day: The closing price of the gold main contract was 938.98, up 1.23%, and the night - session closing price was 949.76; the closing price of the silver main contract was 11,533, up 0.02%, and the night - session closing price was 11,732 [9] - Market situation: The global trade and financial environment is complex. The trends of "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. Central bank gold purchases and the expected Fed rate cuts also support precious metals. However, the recent increase has been significant [9] - Strategy: Previous long positions can be appropriately liquidated for profit [10] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Previous trading day: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated weakly. The spot price of Tangshan billet was 2,940 yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was 3,050 - 3,220 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coils were 3,270 - 3,290 yuan/ton [11] - Market situation: In the medium term, prices are determined by supply - demand. Rebar demand is declining year - on - year, but there is a slight improvement in the traditional peak season. Supply capacity is still excessive, and recent output has declined. Rebar inventory is higher than last year. The fundamentals of hot - rolled coils are similar to rebar [11][12] - Strategy: The medium - term weakness of rebar prices is difficult to change. Investors can consider shorting at high levels during rebounds and pay attention to position management [12] Iron Ore - Previous trading day: Iron ore futures corrected significantly. The spot price of PB fines was 778 yuan/ton, and that of Super Special fines was 700 yuan/ton [14] - Market situation: National pig iron production supports demand. Supply has increased since the second quarter, but imports and domestic production are still down year - on - year. Port inventory is lower than last year. In the short term, supply - demand supports prices, but may weaken in the medium term [14] - Strategy: Investors can consider buying on dips and pay attention to position management [14] Coking Coal and Coke - Previous trading day: Coking coal and coke futures oscillated weakly. Coking coal supply pressure is not significant, and demand shows some improvement. Coke prices have been adjusted, and the first - round increase is gradually taking effect [16][17] - Market situation: Coking coal production is normal, and demand for replenishment exists. Coke production and demand are relatively stable [16][17] - Strategy: Investors can consider buying on dips and pay attention to position management [17] Ferroalloys - Previous trading day: The manganese - silicon main contract fell 0.14% to 5,738 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron main contract fell 0.44% to 5,378 yuan/ton. Spot prices also declined [19] - Market situation: Manganese ore shipments from Gabon decreased, and Australian ore supply increased. Port manganese ore inventory decreased slightly, and prices stabilized at a low level. Ferroalloy production costs increased, but demand was weak, and supply was excessive in the short term [19][20] - Strategy: In the short term, supply may remain excessive. After a decline, investors can consider long positions when the spot market falls into a loss - making range [20] Crude Oil - Previous trading day: INE crude oil oscillated downward due to the expected signing of a Middle - East peace agreement [21] - Market situation: CFTC data shows that US fund managers are bearish on crude oil. US oil and gas rig counts decreased. The Russia - Ukraine war continues to support prices, but the expected peace agreement in the Middle East is negative for prices [21][22] - Strategy: Temporarily hold off on trading the main crude oil contract [23] Fuel Oil - Previous trading day: Fuel oil oscillated downward following crude oil. The spot spreads of Asian ultra - low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oils declined. Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil inventory is high, and there is a shortage of medium - sulfur fuel oil [24] - Market situation: The Russia - Ukraine war supports prices, but the easing of Middle - East geopolitical risks leads to a decline in crude oil and fuel oil [24] - Strategy: Expand the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils for the main fuel oil contract [25] Synthetic Rubber - Previous trading day: The synthetic rubber main contract fell 1.42%. The mainstream price in Shandong decreased to 11,000 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable [26] - Market situation: The raw material side is bearish, and private supply is expected to increase. The utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber production capacity is high, demand is better than expected, and inventory shows different trends [26] - Strategy: It is expected to oscillate [27] Natural Rubber - Previous trading day: The main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber fell 0.97% and 0.79% respectively. The Shanghai spot price was stable at around 14,300 yuan/ton, and the basis widened [28] - Market situation: Affected by Sino - US trade frictions, the overall sentiment is bearish. Supply disturbances have slowed down, and demand from tire factories has decreased during the holiday. After the holiday, supply disturbances are uncertain, and demand may recover [28] - Strategy: Pay attention to long - position opportunities [29] PVC - Previous trading day: The PVC main contract fell 0.43%. Spot prices decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable [30] - Market situation: The oversupply situation persists, but the downward space may be limited. After the holiday, focus on exports and supply reduction. Supply capacity utilization decreased, demand from downstream industries was weak, and inventory increased [30] - Strategy: Pay attention to changes on the supply side [30] Urea - Previous trading day: The urea main contract fell 0.50%. The price in Shandong Linyi was stable at 1,520 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable [31] - Market situation: After the holiday, focus on exports and cost changes. Supply has increased, and demand from downstream products has fluctuated slightly. Inventory is higher than expected [31] - Strategy: The downward space is limited [32] PX - Previous trading day: The PX main contract fell 1.58%. The PXN spread was adjusted to 220 US dollars/ton, and the PX - MX spread was 100 US dollars/ton [33] - Market situation: PX load increased, and some devices are under maintenance. Imports increased in August. In the short term, supply - demand is looser, and the cost side is weak, but the PXN spread is relatively strong [33] - Strategy: PX may adjust weakly in the short term. Pay attention to position management, external crude oil changes, and macro - policy changes [33] PTA - Previous trading day: The PTA2601 main contract fell 1.6%. Supply decreased due to some device shutdowns, and demand increased as polyester load rose. Processing fees were under pressure [34][35] - Market situation: In the short term, processing fees may improve, and inventory is low, but demand improvement is limited, and external crude oil prices are weak [35] - Strategy: PTA may oscillate. Be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [35] Ethylene Glycol - Previous trading day: The ethylene glycol main contract fell 1.24%. Supply increased as some devices restarted, and inventory increased. Demand improvement was limited, and the cost of crude oil was weak [36] - Market situation: In the short term, it may oscillate weakly. Pay attention to port inventory and import changes [36] - Strategy: Follow cost changes and pay attention to risk control and macro - policy adjustments [38] Short Fibers - Previous trading day: The short - fiber 2512 main contract fell 1.24%. Supply was at a relatively high level, and demand improved slightly. Cost support was weak [37][38] - Market situation: In the short term, it may oscillate following cost changes. Pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [38] - Strategy: Follow cost changes and pay attention to risk control and macro - policy adjustments [38] Bottle Chips - Previous trading day: The bottle - chip 2512 main contract fell 1.17%. Supply increased, and demand from the downstream soft - drink industry decreased slightly, but exports remained high [39] - Market situation: In the short term, it is expected to oscillate following cost changes. Pay attention to risk control [39] - Strategy: Follow cost changes and pay attention to risk control [39] Lithium Carbonate - Previous trading day: The main contract rose 0.5% to 72,680 yuan/ton. Supply is at a high level, and demand from the energy - storage and power - battery sectors has improved. Inventory is gradually decreasing but remains high [40] - Market situation: In the short term, it may return to a supply - surplus situation, and prices may weaken. Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [40][41] - Strategy: Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [41] Copper - Previous trading day: Shanghai copper opened high and closed low due to uncertainties in US tariffs on China. The spot price increased, but downstream buying was weak [43] - Market situation: The closure of an Indonesian copper mine supports prices. Goldman Sachs' price forecast is lower than expected. Sino - US negotiations bring uncertainties [43] - Strategy: Temporarily hold off on trading the Shanghai copper main contract [44] Tin - Previous trading day: The main contract fell 0.76% to 280,000 yuan/ton. The supply from the mine end is tight, and demand shows some resilience. Inventory is decreasing [45] - Market situation: It is expected to oscillate strongly. Pay attention to the risk of accelerated mine resumption and lower - than - expected consumption [45][46] - Strategy: It is expected to oscillate strongly. Pay attention to the risk of accelerated mine resumption and lower - than - expected consumption [45][46] Nickel - Previous trading day: The main contract fell 0.17% to 120,870 yuan/ton. Concerns about supply resurfaced, but the price of high - grade nickel ore is supported. Stainless - steel consumption is weak, and inventory is relatively high [48] - Market situation: It is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the risk of significant improvement in macro - policies [48][49] - Strategy: It is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the risk of significant improvement in macro - policies [48][49] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Previous trading day: The main contracts of soybean meal and soybean oil fell 1.16% and 0.51% respectively. The spot prices were stable. US and Brazilian soybean production is progressing smoothly, and there are concerns about US soybean exports [50] - Market situation: Domestic soybean supply is abundant, and the profit of oil mills has declined. Demand for soybean meal may increase slightly, and soybean oil consumption is under pressure [50][51] - Strategy: Consider long - position opportunities for soybean meal call options after adjustment. Temporarily hold off on trading soybean oil [51] Palm Oil - Previous trading day: Malaysian palm oil fell for the third consecutive day. Inventory in September increased, and exports in October showed an increase. Chinese imports increased in August, and inventory is at a medium level [52] - Market situation: Consider a long - position strategy on dips [53] - Strategy: Consider a long - position strategy on dips [53] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Previous trading day: Canadian rapeseed prices rose. China has purchased a large amount of Australian rapeseed. Domestic imports of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil increased in August. Inventory is at different levels [54][55] - Market situation: Consider a long - position strategy on dips for rapeseed oil [56] - Strategy: Consider a long - position strategy on dips for rapeseed oil [56] Cotton - Previous trading day: Domestic cotton oscillated, and the outer - market cotton rebounded. US cotton production is expected to increase, and there are concerns about Sino - US trade frictions. Domestic cotton production is expected to increase significantly [57][58] - Market situation: Cotton prices are expected to remain under pressure. The domestic - foreign price difference is large, and there is hedging pressure [58] - Strategy: Cotton prices are expected to remain under pressure [59] Sugar - Previous trading day: Zhengzhou sugar fell to a new low, and the outer - market sugar rebounded. Brazilian sugar production increased in September, and the global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus in the new season. Chinese imports increased [60] - Market situation: Consider a wait - and - see strategy. The short - term price may have support [61][62] - Strategy: Consider a wait - and - see strategy [62] Apples - Previous trading day: Domestic apple futures fell slightly. Early - maturing apples had different price trends, and late - maturing apples are about to be listed. The national apple production is expected to increase slightly [63] - Market situation: Consider a wait - and - see strategy. The opening price of late - maturing apples is likely to be higher than last year [63][64] - Strategy: Consider a wait - and - see strategy [64] Live Pigs - Previous trading day: The national average price of live pigs rose to 10.89 yuan/kg. The supply in the north has increased, and the price has stabilized and rebounded. The supply in the south has increased, and the price is stable. The inventory of sows has decreased slightly [65] - Market situation: Consider holding existing short positions and using reverse - arbitrage strategies. Pay attention to the supply rhythm and the entry of second - fattening pigs [65][66] - Strategy: Consider holding existing short positions and using reverse - arbitrage strategies. Pay attention to the supply rhythm and the entry of second - fattening pigs [65][66] Eggs - Previous trading day: The average price of eggs in the main production areas was stable, and that in the main sales areas decreased slightly. The cost is high, and the inventory of laying hens is at a high level. The consumption after the holiday is weak [67] - Market situation: Consider holding existing short positions and adding short positions on rebounds. Pay attention to the change in the culling sentiment and cost collapse [67][68] - Strategy: Consider holding existing short positions and adding short positions on rebounds. Pay attention to the change in the culling sentiment and cost collapse [67][68] Corn and Corn Starch - Previous trading day: The main contracts of corn and corn starch fell. US corn harvesting is progressing smoothly. Domestic demand for corn is slightly increasing, and the inventory of corn starch is at a high level [69][70] - Market situation: Corn prices are expected to remain under pressure. Consider a wait - and - see strategy. Corn starch may follow the corn market [70][71] - Strategy: Corn prices are expected to remain under pressure. Consider a wait - and - see strategy. Corn starch may follow the corn market [70][71]