Shanghai Lonyer(SH:603003) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-15 03:44Report Overview - The report is the Container Industry Risk Management Daily Report dated October 14, 2025, released by Nanhua Research Institute [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Today, the futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) (EC) fluctuated first, and the far - month contracts rose significantly in the afternoon. All EC contracts closed higher. The upward price is due to Maersk's successful price - holding in mid - to - late October and the price increase letters issued by the top three global shipping companies, as well as the escalation of the strike at the Port of Rotterdam. In the short term, the prices are likely to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the cease - fire process in Gaza and Sino - US relations. Strategies can be to stay on the sidelines or attempt a 10 - 12 positive spread arbitrage [3] Summary by Section EC Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - For those with full shipping capacity or poor booking volume and worried about freight rate drops, they can short the container shipping index futures (EC2512) at 1700 - 1750 to lock in profits [2] - For those hoping to book cabins according to orders and worried about rising freight rates, they can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2512) at 1450 - 1500 to determine booking costs in advance [2] Core Contradictions - The futures prices of EC rose today. Maersk's successful price - holding in mid - to - late October and price increase letters from major shipping companies, along with the Rotterdam port strike, supported the prices. In the short term, prices may continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to geopolitical and trade relations [3] 利多解读 - The strike at the Port of Rotterdam has escalated, paralyzing container handling operations and increasing supply - side pressure. Maersk's successful price - holding in mid - to - late October and CMA CGM's price increase in November are positive factors [4] 利空解读 - On October 10, 2025, Trump proposed to impose a 100% tariff on China and implement new export controls on key software products, which is a negative factor [5] EC Basis Daily Changes - On October 15, 2025, the basis of EC contracts showed different degrees of change. For example, the basis of EC2510 was - 104.40, with a daily decrease of 6.80 and a weekly decrease of 109.89 [7] EC Price and Spreads - On October 15, 2025, the closing prices of EC contracts all increased. For example, EC2512 closed at 1674.1, with a daily increase of 7.14% and a weekly decrease of 4.68% [7] Container Shipping Spot Cabin Quotes - On October 30, Maersk's 20GP and 40GP opening quotes from Shanghai to Rotterdam were the same as the previous two periods. CMA CGM's quotes increased in November, while ONE's quotes decreased in mid - to - late October [9] Global Freight Rate Indexes - Different global freight rate indexes showed different trends. For example, the SCFIS European route index decreased by 1.40%, while the SCFI European route index increased by 9.99% [9] Global Major Port Waiting Times - On October 14, 2025, the waiting times at major ports changed compared to the previous day. For example, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port decreased by 0.400 days [16] Ship Speeds and Number of Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Ports - On October 14, 2025, the speeds of different - sized container ships decreased slightly compared to the previous day, and the number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal ports increased by 4 [24]