新世纪期货交易提示（2025-10-15）-20251015

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatility [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatility with a downward bias [2] - Rebar: Volatility with a downward bias [2] - Glass: Adjustment [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Volatility [4] - SSE 50 Index Futures/Options: Volatility [4] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Downward [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Downward [4] - 2-year Treasury Bond Futures: Volatility [4] - 5-year Treasury Bond Futures: Volatility [4] - 10-year Treasury Bond Futures: Upward [4] - Gold: Bullish volatility [4] - Silver: Bullish volatility [4] - Logs: Increased volatility [5] - Pulp: Consolidation at the bottom [5] - Offset paper: Volatility [5] - Soybean oil: Wide-range volatility [5] - Palm oil: Wide-range volatility [5] - Rapeseed oil: Wide-range volatility [5] - Soybean meal: Volatility with a downward bias [5] - Rapeseed meal: Volatility with a downward bias [5] - Soybean No. 2: Volatility with a downward bias [5] - Soybean No. 1: Volatility [6] - Live pigs: Volatility with a downward bias [6] - Rubber: Wide-range volatility [6] - PX: Wait-and-see [8] - PTA: Volatility [8] - MEG: Wait-and-see [8] - PR: Wait-and-see [8] - PF: Wait-and-see [8] Core Views - The black sector is affected by trade frictions, supply concerns, and policy factors. Steel demand in October is crucial for the iron ore and steel markets. The coal and coke markets face supply and demand adjustments, and attention should be paid to low-suction opportunities and policy implementation [2]. - The stock index market is affected by economic data, international trade relations, and policy factors. Market risk aversion has increased, and it is recommended to reduce risk appetite and control positions for long positions in stock index futures [4]. - The bond market has seen a slight rebound, and it is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bond futures with a light position [4]. - The precious metals market is influenced by factors such as interest rates, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases. Gold and silver are expected to show bullish volatility [4]. - The forest products market has a small supply peak after the holiday, and the demand is expected to gradually recover. The price of logs is expected to have increased volatility, while pulp is expected to consolidate at the bottom [5]. - The oil and fat market is affected by factors such as inventory, production, and policy. It is expected to continue the wide-range volatility pattern, and attention should be paid to soybean planting in Brazil and palm oil production and sales in Malaysia [5]. - The agricultural products market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and trade relations. The prices of soybeans, soybean meal, and live pigs are expected to show different trends, and attention should be paid to relevant factors such as planting progress and market demand [5][6]. - The soft commodities market has a complex supply and demand situation, and the price of rubber is expected to show wide-range volatility [6]. - The polyester market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost. The prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF are expected to show different trends, and attention should be paid to relevant factors such as supply and demand and cost fluctuations [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Trade frictions and supply concerns have affected market sentiment. The short-term iron ore price is expected to remain volatile. The key lies in steel demand in October. If steel demand is lower than expected, it may lead to a negative feedback loop [2]. - Coking coal and coke: Tariff expectations and supply factors have suppressed the market. The supply of coking coal has eased, while the demand for coke remains high. The first round of price increases for coke has been implemented, but the second round has basically failed. Attention should be paid to low-suction opportunities and policy implementation [2]. - Rebar: The static valuation of rebar is low, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The key lies in the demand recovery in October. The market has a short-term replenishment demand, but the demand is difficult to improve fundamentally. The steel market is expected to continue to fluctuate and adjust [2]. - Glass: The short-term supply and demand pattern of glass has not improved significantly, and the inventory has increased. The demand is dragged down by the real estate market. The price is expected to continue to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to demand recovery in the peak season and production capacity policies [2]. Financial Market - Stock index futures/options: The stock index market is affected by economic data, international trade relations, and policy factors. Market risk aversion has increased, and it is recommended to reduce risk appetite and control positions for long positions in stock index futures [4]. - Treasury bond futures: The bond market has seen a slight rebound, and it is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bond futures with a light position [4]. Precious Metals Market - Gold and silver: The precious metals market is influenced by factors such as interest rates, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases. Gold and silver are expected to show bullish volatility. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest rate policy and geopolitical risks [4]. Forest Products Market - Logs: After the holiday, the supply of logs will have a small peak, and the demand is expected to gradually recover. The price of logs is expected to have increased volatility. Attention should be paid to market supply and demand and price trends [5]. - Pulp: The price of pulp is expected to consolidate at the bottom. The cost support is weak, and the demand improvement needs to be verified. Currently, paper mills purchase raw materials based on rigid demand [5]. Oil and Fat Market - Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil: The oil and fat market is affected by factors such as inventory, production, and policy. It is expected to continue the wide-range volatility pattern. Attention should be paid to soybean planting in Brazil and palm oil production and sales in Malaysia [5]. Agricultural Products Market - Soybean No. 2, soybean No. 1, soybean meal, and rapeseed meal: The agricultural products market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and trade relations. The prices of soybeans, soybean meal, and rapeseed meal are expected to show different trends. Attention should be paid to relevant factors such as planting progress and market demand [5][6]. - Live pigs: The supply of live pigs is relatively abundant, and the demand is weak. The price of live pigs is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to market supply and demand and price trends [6]. Soft Commodities Market - Rubber: The supply and demand situation of rubber is complex. The price is expected to show wide-range volatility. Attention should be paid to factors such as supply and demand, inventory, and weather conditions [6]. Polyester Market - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF: The polyester market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost. The prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF are expected to show different trends. Attention should be paid to relevant factors such as supply and demand and cost fluctuations [8].