Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of iron ore has dropped significantly, and short - term fluctuations have intensified. Although recent policy disturbances have increased, the supply - demand contradiction of iron ore itself is weak. The pressure of shrinking industrial chain profits and the structural contradiction of finished product inventory limit the upside of prices, but high domestic hot - metal production supports the price. The price will run in a range, and the inventory accumulation pressure at ports in October is not large [2][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Reasons for price decline - The sharp drop in iron ore price is mainly due to the escalation of Sino - US trade frictions, which reduces market risk appetite and causes a collective decline in the black series. Also, the market has over - expected the impact of the US ship "special port fee" policy, while the proportion of US ship iron ore transportation is low and the increase in transportation cost is limited [3] Supply - The overseas ore shipment has decreased slightly month - on - month. The shipment of Rio Tinto in Australia has decreased significantly, while that of Brazil is relatively stable. The arrival volume has reached a new high this year, and the support from the supply side continues to weaken [3] Demand - Domestic demand has decreased month - on - month but remains at a high level. The daily average hot - metal output this period is 241.54 tons (month - on - month - 0.27), higher than the average level in August (240.5). Although the blast furnace steel mills have continued a slight decline, high hot - metal production supports the iron ore price [4] Price - The price will run in a range. The main contract of Dalian iron ore futures will be in the range of 780 - 805 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market price of about 104 - 107 US dollars/ton [4] Strategy - Adopt range operation and covered call options [4]
铁矿石：价格大幅下挫，短期波动加剧
Hua Bao Qi Huo·2025-10-15 05:00