Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for RU and NR are neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [6] Core View of the Report - Due to concerns about demand and the recovery of supply, the rubber price continues to be weak. Although the current valuations of domestic RU and NR are low, the downward space is expected to be limited. The supply of BR is still supported, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to be strong on both sides, but the high inventory may lead to a slight decline following the price of upstream butadiene [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 14,845 yuan/ton, a change of -95 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 11,990 yuan/ton, a change of -50 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,780 yuan/ton, a change of -140 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole - latex in the Shanghai market was 14,250 yuan/ton, a change of -50 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,450 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,820 US dollars/ton, with no change; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,700 US dollars/ton, a change of -5 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical was 11,200 yuan/ton, with no change; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 10,800 yuan/ton, a change of -150 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - In September 2025, the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks in China was about 105,000 units (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, reaching a new high in recent years [2] - In September 2025, the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in China was 742,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.75% and a year - on - year increase of 20.85%. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 6.115 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.22% [2] - From January to August 2025, the export volume of Chinese rubber tires reached 6.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%; the export value was 114.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires reached 6.26 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%; the export value was 109.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. Calculated by the number of pieces, the export volume reached 47.86 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% [2] - From January to August, the export volume of automobile tires was 5.55 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%; the export value was 94.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% [3] - According to QinRex data, from January to August 2025, the total export volume of rubber from Cote d'Ivoire was 1.05 million tons, a 14.4% increase compared with 920,000 tons in the same period in 2024. In August alone, the export volume increased by 14.8% year - on - year and decreased by 8.9% month - on - month [3] - From January to August this year, China's automobile production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12.6% respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 9.625 million and 9.62 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 37.3% and 36.7% respectively, and the sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 45.5% of the total sales of new automobiles. In terms of exports, from January to August, the automobile export volume was 4.292 million units, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. Among them, the export volume of new energy vehicles was 1.532 million units, a year - on - year increase of 87.3% [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and Spreads: On October 14, 2025, the RU basis was -595 yuan/ton (+45), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 395 yuan/ton (-95), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was -3,332 yuan/ton (+7.76), the NR basis was 936.00 yuan/ton (-18.00); the price of whole - latex was 14,250 yuan/ton (-50), the price of mixed rubber was 14,450 yuan/ton (+0), the price of 3L spot was 14,950 yuan/ton (-50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,820 US dollars/ton (+0), the spread between whole - latex and 3L was -700 yuan/ton (+0); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,950 yuan/ton (+0) [3] - Raw Materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 57.65 Thai baht/kg (-0.30), the price of Thai glue was 54.10 Thai baht/kg (+0.00), the price of Thai cup lump was 49.95 Thai baht/kg (-1.00), and the spread between Thai glue and cup lump was 4.15 Thai baht/kg (+1.00) [4] - Operating Rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 41.53% (-13.83%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 42.15% (-17.50%) [5] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,112,557 tons (-122,953.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (-125,451), the RU futures inventory was 144,390 tons (-5,420), and the NR futures inventory was 41,329 tons (-705) [5] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and Spreads: On October 14, 2025, the BR basis was -30 yuan/ton (-10), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 8,600 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,200 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 10,800 yuan/ton (-150), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 10,650 yuan/ton (-50), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was -2,196 yuan/ton (-100) [5] - Operating Rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 74.69% (+4.15%) [5] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 5,700 tons (+0), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,600 tons (+0) [5] Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral view. Due to the continuation of the Sino - US tariff game, concerns about the demand side resurface, and the supply is recovering. The domestic supply - demand pattern is gradually becoming looser, but the low valuation limits the downward space [6] - For BR, maintain a neutral view. There are still maintenance plans for butadiene rubber plants in China in October, and the supply is still supported. The supply - demand pattern is expected to be strong on both sides, but the high inventory may lead to a slight decline following the price of upstream butadiene [6]
化工日报：需求担忧叠加供应回升，胶价延续弱势-20251015
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-10-15 05:13