燃料油日报：低硫燃料油市场结构弱势运行-20251015

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with short - term observation recommended [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with short - term observation recommended [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - period: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.55% at 2,672 yuan/ton at night, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 1.9% at 3,155 yuan/ton during the day [1] - The continuous decline in crude oil prices has led to a weak performance in the energy sector, with the FU and LU futures showing a weak trend. During the China - US tariff negotiation period, oil prices may be affected by various news, and volatility may increase significantly [1] - The fundamentals of fuel oil are currently acceptable. Tightened supply in the Middle East and improved refinery demand have boosted the market, but the upward driving force and space are still limited and new variables are needed [1] - The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil is operating weakly, with the external crack spread and monthly spread showing a downward trend. Supply from Africa, South America, etc. has increased, and downstream bunker demand is weak. The demand for low - sulfur fuel oil is more concentrated and more sensitive to tariff frictions compared to high - sulfur fuel oil [1] 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - The decline in crude oil prices has led to a weak performance in the energy sector, and the FU and LU futures are affected. During the tariff negotiation period, oil price volatility may increase [1] - The fundamentals of fuel oil are acceptable, but the upward space is limited. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil is weak, with increased supply and weak demand [1] Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, short - term observation [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, short - term observation [2] - Other strategies (cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, options) are not recommended [2]