新能源及有色金属日报：部分冶炼厂布局出口，铜价高位震荡-20251015

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: On hold [9] - Options: short put @ 83,000 yuan/ton [9] Core View of the Report The copper price strengthened during the National Day due to the resumption of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and frequent mine - end disturbances. However, the processing fee of - 40 dollars/ton already reflects the tightening of mine - end resources, so the short - term price increase caused by mine - end disturbances may not be sustainable. When the Sino - US trade dispute seemed to intensify last Friday, the copper price declined. But low processing fees and the Fed's interest - rate cut limit the downside of the copper price. It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging in the range of 83,500 - 84,000 yuan/ton [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On October 14, 2025, the Shanghai copper main contract opened at 85,800 yuan/ton and closed at 84,410 yuan/ton, down 0.83% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session contract opened at 84,180 yuan/ton and closed at 84,890 yuan/ton, up 0.57% from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 20 to a premium of 120 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 50 yuan, down 30 yuan from the previous day. The spot price was 85,780 - 86,200 yuan/ton. The market's purchasing and selling sentiment was weak. It is expected that trading will be light on the last trading day of the 2510 contract, but the premium may rise after the contract change [2]. Important Information Summary - Fed Chairman Powell said employment and inflation prospects have changed little since September, and the Fed will adjust monetary policy based on economic prospects and risk balance. He also mentioned that the balance - sheet reduction may end in the next few months. The IMF expects the world economy to grow 3.2% in 2025, up 0.2 percentage points from July's forecast, and 3.1% in 2026. The US economic growth forecast for this year and next was slightly raised by 0.1 percentage points, while China's growth rate for this year was maintained at 4.8% [3]. Supply - Side Information Mine End - Freeport Indonesia will suspend its Manyar smelter due to copper concentrate supply shortages after a mudslide at the Grasberg mine. The Grasberg mine may not return to pre - accident operation levels until at least 2027. Rio Tinto's Q3 2025 copper equivalent production increased 10% year - on - year to 204,000 tons, and copper production is expected to reach the upper end of the 2025 target [4]. Smelting and Import - Around 600,000 tons of copper flowed into the US before the tariff increase this year, with about 400,000 tons privately stored, which means the US doesn't need to import copper in the short term. Macquarie predicts the average LME copper price in 2026 will be 9,525 dollars/ton [5]. Consumption Information - In September, China's new - energy vehicle production and sales were 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, up 23.7% and 24.6% year - on - year. From January to September, production and sales reached 11.243 million and 11.228 million respectively, up 35.2% and 34.9% year - on - year [6]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 50 tons to 138,800 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 3,405 tons to 36,295 tons. On October 13, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 1.72 million tons, up 0.057 million tons from the previous week [7][8].