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新能源及有色金属日报：海外升水快速走高-20251015
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-10-15 05:10
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for unilateral trading is cautiously bullish, and the rating for arbitrage is neutral [5] 2. Core View of the Report - LME inventory has slightly increased, but the absolute value remains below 40,000 tons, leading to a rapid increase in overseas premiums. The domestic supply pressure persists, but the opening of the export window has reversed the short - allocation logic. The linkage between domestic and overseas zinc prices will strengthen, and there's no need to be overly pessimistic about the long - term impact of tariffs [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is $201.60 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,210 yuan per ton, with a premium of - 55 yuan per ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,210 yuan per ton, with a premium of - 55 yuan per ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,220 yuan per ton, with a premium of - 45 yuan per ton [1] - Futures: On October 14, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,330 yuan per ton, closed at 22,220 yuan per ton, down 65 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 124,307 lots, and the position was 95,194 lots. The highest price was 22,335 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,210 yuan per ton [2] - Inventory: As of October 14, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 163,100 tons, a change of 12,900 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 38,600 tons, a change of 1,125 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - LME inventory has a slight rebound, but the absolute value is still low, causing the overseas premium to quickly break through $200 per ton. The domestic smelting profit has narrowed, but the supply pressure remains. The opening of the export window has changed the short - allocation logic, and the linkage between domestic and overseas prices will strengthen. There's no need to be overly pessimistic about the long - term impact of tariffs [4] Strategy - Unilateral trading is recommended to be cautiously bullish, and arbitrage is neutral [5]