化工日报：中美关税博弈延续，EG延续弱势-20251015

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The Sino-US tariff game continues, and EG remains weak. The main EG contract closed at 4,061 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton (-1.22%) from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 4,150 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton (-0.67%). The spot basis in East China was 68 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton [1]. - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load is operating at a high level, and there are still many overseas supply losses. In Saudi Arabia, more than two sets of plants are still shut down or operating at low loads. On the demand side, demand is slightly boosted by pre - holiday stocking, but the increase in polyester load is limited. Under the commissioning of new plants, there is a large inventory accumulation pressure in the EG balance sheet in the fourth quarter, and the ethylene glycol port inventory has increased significantly around the National Day [2]. - For trading strategies, it is advisable to cautiously short - sell on rallies for hedging. An inverse spread between EG2601 and EG2605 is recommended, and there is no cross - variety strategy [3]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The main EG contract closed at 4,061 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton (-1.22%) from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 4,150 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton (-0.67%). The spot basis in East China was 68 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$61/ton, down $1/ton from the previous day. The production profit of coal - based syngas - to - EG was -431 yuan/ton, up 96 yuan/ton [1]. International Spread No specific data analysis provided, only mentions the chart of "ethylene glycol international spread: US FOB - China CFR" [20]. Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - Due to pre - holiday stocking, demand is slightly boosted, but the increase in polyester load is limited, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the demand recovery [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 54.1 tons, up 3.4 tons. According to Longzhong data, it was 44.3 tons, up 4.3 tons. From October 9th to 12th, the actual arrival at the main ports was 8.7 tons, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The planned arrival at the main ports in East China this week is 10.2 tons, and the planned arrival at the secondary ports is 2.5 tons, with a possibility of continued inventory accumulation [1]. - Under the commissioning of new plants, there is a large inventory accumulation pressure in the EG balance sheet in the fourth quarter, and the ethylene glycol port inventory has increased significantly around the National Day [2].