新能源及有色金属日报：政策扰动仍在，多晶硅盘面宽幅震荡-20251015

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon's spot price shows weak stability, with a current weak supply - demand fundamental situation. The inventory increased week - on - week, and the futures market declined on the day, mainly affected by the weak sentiment of the overall commodity market. The industrial silicon market fluctuates based on the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies promoting capacity exit, the market may have room to rise [1][2]. - Polysilicon's supply - demand fundamentals are average, with significant inventory pressure, less - than - expected production cuts, and resistance in price transmission downstream. The 11 - month warehouse receipt cancellation suppresses the market. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and the policy is still being promoted. In the long - term, polysilicon is suitable for low - level long - position layout [7]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On October 14, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a weak trend. The main contract 2511 opened at 8,715 yuan/ton and closed at 8,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 190 yuan/ton or 2.18% from the previous day's settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 162,674 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 51,197 lots, an increase of 343 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon was weakly stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton), and 421 silicon was 9,600 - 9,800 yuan/ton (unchanged). The price of Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,700 - 9,000 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 99 silicon was 8,700 - 9,000 yuan/ton (unchanged). The prices of some silicon in Kunming, Huangpu Port, the Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai regions declined slightly, while the price of 97 silicon remained stable [1]. - The Fuanda project in Angola, invested by Jiangsu Beiyang Group, has a total investment of 20 million US dollars in Phase I, covering an area of 16 hectares, with two submerged arc furnaces built and an annual output of 15,000 tons of industrial silicon. It was fully put into operation in 2025. Phase II plans to invest 100 million US dollars, covering an area of 125 hectares, with the construction of a 220KV substation and 10 submerged arc furnaces, and an expected annual output of 200,000 tons of industrial silicon and various alloy materials. The construction of the first 4 furnaces has started [2]. - The consumption side: The quoted price of silicone DMC was 11,100 - 11,500 yuan/ton (unchanged). Most manufacturers still have some pre - sold orders, and there are many maintenance manufacturers, with some planning to enter maintenance. The market supply is expected to be in a short - term strong and volatile state [2]. Strategy - Spot price is weakly stable, and the current supply - demand fundamentals are weak. The inventory increased week - on - week, and the futures market declined on the day, mainly affected by the weak overall commodity sentiment. The industrial silicon market fluctuates based on the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. It is necessary to pay attention to whether there are relevant capacity exit policies. Currently, the valuation of industrial silicon is low, and if there is policy promotion, the market may have room to rise [2]. - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, and buy on dips for contracts during the dry season [3]. - Cross - period: None [3]. - Cross - variety: None [3]. - Spot - futures: None [3]. - Options: None [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On October 14, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures showed a strong trend, opening at 48,695 yuan/ton and closing at 49,990 yuan/ton, with a closing price increase of 2.55% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 81,388 lots (87,665 lots in the previous trading day), and the trading volume on the day was 297,703 lots [4][5]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 50.50 - 55.00 yuan/kg (unchanged), and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg (unchanged) [5]. - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 240,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.19%, the silicon wafer inventory was 16.78GW, a week - on - week increase of 3.39%. The weekly output of polysilicon was 31,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.10%, and the silicon wafer output was 12.83GW, a week - on - week decrease of 6.89% [5]. - In terms of silicon wafers: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.35 yuan/piece (unchanged), N - type 210mm was 1.70 yuan/piece (unchanged), and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.39 yuan/piece (down 0.01 yuan/piece) [5]. - According to SMM data, the polysilicon price was generally stable with minor fluctuations. The market transactions were light during the National Day, with few new transactions, and the market was significantly resistant to high - priced resources. Polysilicon manufacturers had different quotes, and the market was waiting for the polysilicon industry meeting in October. The polysilicon output in October exceeded expectations and is expected to increase by 3,000 - 5,000 tons month - on - month [5]. - In terms of battery cells: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W (unchanged); PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W (unchanged); TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.32 yuan/W (unchanged); Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.32 yuan/W (unchanged); Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.29 yuan/W (unchanged). HJT210 half - piece battery cells were 0.37 yuan/W (unchanged) [6]. - Components: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W (unchanged), PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W (unchanged), N - type 182mm was 0.66 - 0.68 yuan/W (unchanged), and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W (unchanged) [6]. Strategy - The supply - demand fundamentals of polysilicon are average, with significant inventory pressure, less - than - expected production cuts, and resistance in price transmission downstream. The 11 - month warehouse receipt cancellation suppresses the market. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and the policy is still being promoted. It is necessary to continuously follow up on the implementation of policies and the downward price transmission of spot prices. In the long - term, polysilicon is suitable for low - level long - position layout [7]. - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, and it is expected that the 11 - month contract will fluctuate between 48,000 - 54,000 yuan/ton [7]. - Cross - period: None [7]. - Cross - variety: None [7]. - Spot - futures: None [7]. - Options: None [7].